financial$ subscriptions New 'Star Trek' Series

[jefferiestubes8]

This guy has run the numbers himself.

Armed with the above reference points, I took a guess at incremental “Star Trek” subscription revenue. I’m assuming the new “Star Trek” will have 10 episodes per season. If aired on a weekly basis, that would span over three months.

As a CBS shareholder, I wanted to do a ballpark guess as to what the new “Star Trek” could add to the bottom line.

Let’s say the new “Star Trek” season 1 averages $6 million per episode and has 10 episodes for a total cost of $60 million.

T

aking my base case for subscription revenue and then subtracting episode costs ($192 million – $60 million) would net $132 million for 2017 domestic subscription income. That’s not taking into account other forms of monetization like advertising fees or international distribution.

From a Forbes article
How Much Will The New 'Star Trek' Series Add To CBS' Bottom Line?

Interesting perspective and thoughts on various types of income a big intellectual property would bring in.
Ten episodes as opposed to 12?

It is possible the first season would be 10 episodes and season 2 would be 13 and start earlier in January 2018...

 

[Ryan8bit]

The first season may have only 10 episodes, while a future season could have as many as 16. But I find his per episode figures to be a bit off base. Yes, Game of Thrones costs $6 million per episode, but it is on HBO, which has long had a better reputation, costs more money, and has more subscribers. I don't know if they'll risk that much on Trek, with the exception of the pilot, but that will be taking in ad revenues (as will apparently the streaming service, although to a much lesser degree). I'd say they're likely to shoot for $4 million, although I'd be really happy if they did do more.

It's really hard to say with the variables, but I think even his moderate estimate gives way too many subscribers. You can't compare the amount of people who go to pay and see movies vs. people who would pay for a streaming service. Even though there shouldn't be a functional difference, there is. You also can't compare it to people who watched TV. There's a difference there too. His low estimate should be a million subscribers, maybe even less.

I'm sure the debut itself on CBS will have something like 15-20 million viewers if advertised appropriately. At best, you'll probably get a quarter of those people to subscribe. Hopefully we get that best.

 

[Mudd]

I think his assumptions about initial viewership are optimistic. Six to eight million subscriptions sold would be a little more likely.

 

[AviTrek]

His estimates are way too. Enterprise ended with 2.9m. The pilot was the highest rated episode by a large margin. It was down to 9.2m for the second episode, and had a low of 4.5m in the 1st season alone. All of that is before factoring in free tv vs subscription. Netflix was getting about 4.4m for Daredevil.

As estimates I'd say 4.5m is best case, and worst case would be closer to 1-1.5m.

Let's use his 3,4,6 month subscription estimates.

That gives us a revenue range of $24m - $162m.

I'm also going to assume 13 episodes which matches what Netflix has done for initial runs. Again using Netflix as a guide, the Marvel shows and House of Cards cost between $3.3 and $4m per episode.

That means cost for 13 episodes will run $43m - $52m. So at worst case the show is losing money on subscriptions alone. Factor in ad revenue and international sales and the $24m low end revenue estimate can maybe get to $43. But CBS better hope it gets more than 1m subscribers to make this work long term.

 

[Quinton O'Connor]

Yikes. If analysts are anticipating that level of initial viewership, they're going to be disappointed.

 

[IndyMac]

For comparison, here are the number of viewers for 2 successful shows that are what are typically considered niche genres and do not air on broadcast television.

Game of Thrones:
Season 1 - 2.52 million
Season 2 - 3.80 million
Season 3 - 4.97 million
Season 4 - 6.85 million
Season 5 - 6.88 million


The Walking Dead:
Season 1 - 5.24 million
Season 2 - 6.90 million
Season 3 - 10.40 million
Season 4 - 13.30 million
Season 5 - 14.40 million

Would Game of Thrones type numbers be considered successful for the new Star Trek? Neither show would have initially been a success by broadcast standards, and would likely have been cancelled before becoming the pop culture phenomena they are today. Both shows have essentially tripled the number of viewers from their first season to their fifth.

 

[Squiggy]

This guy has run the numbers himself.

That’s not taking into account other forms of monetization like advertising fees or international distribution.

Then what's the point?

 

[Mudd]

If CBS got one million subscribers for the first season of Trek they'd have increased their subscription base somewhere between 500 and 1000 percent - so any initial loss might reasonably be justified as necessary to begin growing a service which they really, really need to have in place one way or the other in the next five years or so.

They're also working on an NFL deal.

 

[Mr Awe]

I'm not sure how this guy is calculating the number of subscriptions, but I'd be surprised if the number of new subscriptions from those who solely want to see the new Star Trek series exceeded 2 million.

Mr Awe

 

[IndyMac]

Speaking of the NFL, I'm assuming the premier broadcast on CBS in January 2017 will be after the AFC Championship game on Sunday January 22, 2017. That's assuming CBS really believes that Star Trek is "the family jewels" of CBS as Les Moonves recently claimed.

 

[Squiggy]

Speaking of the NFL, I'm assuming the premier broadcast on CBS in January 2017 will be after the AFC Championship game on Sunday January 22, 2017. That's assuming CBS really believes that Star Trek is "the family jewels" of CBS as Les Moonves recently claimed.

I'd put it after Big Bang, better audience cross over.

 

[AviTrek]

Speaking of the NFL, I'm assuming the premier broadcast on CBS in January 2017 will be after the AFC Championship game on Sunday January 22, 2017. That's assuming CBS really believes that Star Trek is "the family jewels" of CBS as Les Moonves recently claimed.

Nice location. I had thought about post-superbowl but CBS has the Superbowl this Jan. Next year it'll be fox. So post AFC Championship works assuming it's not competing with NFC Championship.

The location will be very telling about how CBS really views Star Trek. Will they give it a location where it will get a ton of viewers and promote CBSAA or will they bury it so only fans seek it out.

 

[Campe]

I'm not sure how this guy is calculating the number of subscriptions, but I'd be surprised if the number of new subscriptions from those who solely want to see the new Star Trek series exceeded 2 million.

Mr Awe

To begin, based on the premise alone, whatever that may be, you will have some percentage of the built-in fanbase just not interested. Then, you will have those who watch the pilot but just aren't engaged enough to watch the series. The pilot will probably be about 4-5 million viewers and the series I'm guessing 2-2.5 million average for the inaugural season. And unless the series is just completely groundbreaking, I'm not seeing it adding onto its viewership.

It will likely get a second season, just based on the newness of CBS' attempts to utilize CBSAA. But, anything further is just going to depend on the quality and if it engages viewers.

 

[Cinema Geekly]

The author does have it split into three possible options and I think the last two are the far more likely.

That isn't even considering the full tilt of the distribution method. The author is working under the impression that people will say

"Star Trek is coming back? But not on TV? Oh its not on Netflix, Hulu, or Amazon? Is it on freaking Crackle? It's not? It's on a TV channels internet streaming service that I also have to pay for even though I already get their channel for free on TV? And what's that? It's only available on a limited number of platforms? I'm IN!"

 

[IndyMac]

Nice location. I had thought about post-superbowl but CBS has the Superbowl this Jan. Next year it'll be fox. So post AFC Championship works assuming it's not competing with NFC Championship.

The location will be very telling about how CBS really views Star Trek. Will they give it a location where it will get a ton of viewers and promote CBSAA or will they bury it so only fans seek it out.

Technically, the Superbowl is always in February anyways. This year the AFC Championship is before NFC. I'm pretty sure they reverse the order every year, so the AFC should be after the NFC next year.

 

[AviTrek]

If delaying until Feb meant premiering after the Superbowl I don't think anyone sane would complain. A 2 week delay in exchange for the biggest TV lead in of the year is a no-brainer. But CBS doesn't have the Superbowl so it's irrelevant.

 

[jefferiestubes8]

If delaying until Feb meant premiering after the Superbowl I don't think anyone sane would complain. A 2 week delay in exchange for the biggest TV lead in of the year is a no-brainer. But CBS doesn't have the Superbowl so it's irrelevant.

The night of the week it premieres may not be the night of the week it is available on CBSAA. Also will CBSAA start their run in January or February?

When we Find out what night airing in foreign markets we will know more.
Expect illegal torrents to get CBS broadcast of special preview 24 hours later and have time for internet buzz to build. Maybe it previews the premiere on CBS 2 weeks before it airs weekly on CBSAA and worldwide?
Probably USA CBS preview will be before any foreign markets see it.

 

[IndyMac]

If delaying until Feb meant premiering after the Superbowl I don't think anyone sane would complain. A 2 week delay in exchange for the biggest TV lead in of the year is a no-brainer. But CBS doesn't have the Superbowl so it's irrelevant.

My point was that if CBS had planned for after the Superbowl, they would have said the show would premier in February instead of January. But I agree, this is all irrelevant anyway.

 

[IndyMac]

Here is an even more bearish estimate. 1/2 million sign up for a full year, 1 million subscribe during the season, and 1/2 million subscribe for 1 month after the season to binge watch.

500,000 x 12 months x $5.99
+ 1,000,000 x 4 months x $5.99
+ 500,000 x 1 month x $5.99
____________________________
= $62,895,000

This covers the author's speculated $60 million production cost before adding in revenue from advertising, international distribution and merchandising.

 

[jefferiestubes8]

iTunes effect on CBSAA

I wonder if CBS will also be releasing this new series on iTunes each episode available the next day or if they will keep it exclusive in USA to CBSAA for 3 months until the end of the CBSAA episode run so for 12 episodes it would be 13 weeks.
And how much would CBS charge for 12 episodes of new Trek on iTunes?
star Trek ENT is $50. For 26 episodes in HD right now on iTunes.
Another new 26 episode 30-minute comedy "Life in Pieces" is $24.99/season so Trek is going to be at a premium for sale. As we know a season of iTunes is a season you own.

Sure a blu-ray season 1 set will be 6-8 months later. Some people want to own it longer than the subscription for CBSAA if they cancel a subscription.