The recent crop of sci-fi shows were utter garbage, IMHO. I have no high hopes that a Trek show, if produced right now, would fare any better.
While I have not seen
Falling Skies (which I hear is very good), the only recent SciFi television I have cared for is the rebooted
V and the rebooted
Battlestar Galactica. Since SyFy is an NBC connection, I don't see a new
Trek series there, which is the only place one could hope to see the kind of funding needed to pull
Trek off correctly.
If SyFy got a series, it would last 3 years, tops.
I also do not see the film franchise surviving the JJ arrival. I think we get three or four movies out of him, and movie
Trek gets laid to rest in all but the minds of us fans out here in the ether.
I think that CBS would have to see some kind of major benefit potential before it brought
Trek back on-screen in a live-action format TV show. I do think they'll try at some point, but on network television it is doomed to fail, and if it goes onto Showtime (I think that's CBS's premium network connection) I doubt enough of the fanbase will watch to keep it afloat. (Also note, to make it on Showtime, you'd have to add some *ahem* visual benefits *ahem* that you don't get on regular TV... and I think that would probably kill the family appeal that much of
Trek had in the 60's and 80's.)
A happy medium would be an annual
Star Trek mini-series. (Yea, remember the Mini-Series? It was all the rage back in the 80's!) But, again, is the fanbase broad enough to invest the money in that? I just don't know.
I do know this... the current fanbase is aging, and the kind of engagement you got in the late 60's through early 80's from fans is somewhat lacking. Back in those days, fans felt they owned
Trek, and new fans could get right in on the ground floor. Today, there is a wider variety of cult programming to engage in, and
Trek is not on the forefront of it anymore.
Unless
Trek can regain a similar position in cult fandom, I see little hope of a major
Star Trek revival.
Rob+