2015-2016 NBA Season Discussion

[gblews]

I watched the Warriors/Thunder game over the weekend. What is soul crushing for the Thunder is that Curry and the Warriors were ice cold from beyond the arc and they still got you. No way the W's are that cold in multiple games in a seven game series.

But here is the thing, it is a NBA truism that the best teams play much better in the playoffs than in the regular season. My concern with the Warriors is whether or not they can play any better than they have so far this season. If they do, then god help the rest of the playoff teams. They will have to be better if they expect to repeat. But they'll have to show me. I'm telling you, a properly motivated team, with a good defensive game plan, could force the Dubs out of their comfort zones enough to win a 7 game series.

What's even more soul crushing is that Golden State is rumored to be a solid contender for the role of Kevin Durant's future employer.

Seeing Durant with the Warriors wouldn't crush my soul, but I don't see any way the Dubs can sign him. He will require a max slot and if I'm not mistaken, the Dubs are at the cap and probably over. I did read that guy online claiming that the Warriors might be able to sigh Durant by simply renouncing the rights to several key players, but I'm not sure if his theory passes the smell test. Maybe if cap guru, Larry Coon, were to review the theory and approve...

The current CBA, in it's zeal to stop the Lakers from making the rest of the NBA look like the Washington Generals (as Dan Gilbert put it), is pretty tough on this kind of thing. Dubs may not even qualify for a sign and trade.

For now, I think the Dubs signing Durant is a pipe dream.

 

[JirinPanthosa]

I'm starting to think the Celtics could actually win the east, or at least lose to Cavs in conference finals. Then, the Nets draft pick could convert to a future superstar depending on lottery fortune, at the same time the salary cap goes up.

Already in 3rd, in a position to chase Toronto for 2nd.

 

[gblews]

JirinPanthosa, post: 11466266, member: 47440"]I'm starting to think the Celtics could actually win the east, or at least lose to Cavs in conference finals. Then, the Nets draft pick could convert to a future superstar depending on lottery fortune, at the same time the salary cap goes up.

Although as a Lakers' fan, I loathe the Celts and pray for their demise on a regular basis, the way they have handled their rebuild has been pretty awesome. The Celts tanked 2, maybe 3 years, drafted pretty well (Marcus Smart, big mistake ), and here they are challenging for a playoff spot in the east. This is one of the reasons I'm constantly ridiculing the Sixers' "Plan", ("tank till you cain't"). All the C's need now is a superstar (thanks Brooklyn ) and in the east, will contend for the conference finals sooner than later.

The Celts managed to pull this off without embarrassing themselves and the NBA. Sixers have had what, 2-3 drafts in the lottery and are STILL in tank mode. They drafted Embiid in '14 and needed a do-over in '15, so they took Okafor who is now being mentioned in trade rumours. With the best player in the upcoming draft also being a frontcourt player, Ben Simmons), will the Sixers draft yet another forward and continue to tank in '16 while hoping for a guard? I think so,

The Knicks are another team that has outdone the Sixers at their own game.

Now I need to go shower that return to sticking pins in my Danny Ainge (hit-me-face) doll.

 

[JirinPanthosa]

Sorry Kobe stole all your cap space.

 

[tomalak301]

This dunk might be the greatest dunk I've ever seen, Dunk contest or otherwise. Gordon should have won on this alone:

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[Alidar Jarok]

Private

 

[gblews]

Sorry Kobe stole all your cap space.

I suggest you stick to your very rudimentary observations on the Celts, because when it comes to discussions of the Lakers, you are WAY out of your depth. Trust me when I tell you that you don't have a clue as to what you're talking about.

 

[gblews]

This dunk might be the greatest dunk I've ever seen, Dunk contest or otherwise. Gordon should have won on this alone:

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He used the mascot to gain additional height and balance. Still, on the surface it looks really impressive. But watch his right hand as it covers the ball. It is the same little move Blake Griffin used to use to make his dunks look that much more spectacular.

 

[JirinPanthosa]

How many years has it been since he was worth $25 million? It took a few years before he learned how to pass the ball.

I can't wait to see the Spurs/Warriors playoff series. Everyone's so focused on the Warriors' quest for 73 they aren't focusing on the fact that the Spurs could hit 70, and we'd have two of the highest three single season records of all time in one year, AND two teams in the same year undefeated at home.

 

[gblews]

How many years has it been since he was worth $25 million? It took a few years before he learned how to pass the ball.

Okay, I'll play along. I'll assume you mean to say that Kobe isn't worth the amount of the last contract he signed. I'm assuming this because you seem to be a bit timid in stating what you really mean.

Kobe signed his current contract approximately 4 or 5 years ago If I'm not mistaken. At the time he was one of the best 2 guards in the league -- still -- not to mention the fact that several teams would have gladly participated in a bidding war for his services. The Lakers could not risk losing him.

He was hurt for the 3 years after he signed the deal, true enough, but considering that he has always been an iron man and is one of the toughest players in league history, no one could begrudge him those injuries. He shot 2 free throws to win a game that helped put us in the playoffs AFTER he tore his Achilles in 2012.

This past season the Lakers, who were, and are, going nowhere, were the leagues biggest draw on the road. That means that not only is he worth more than $25 mil to the Lakers, Kobe is worth more than that to the rest of the league as well.

I love the "Kobe is a ballhog" argument. I'll just say this; he has a career assist average of 4,77 per game. That's almost 5 a game. That is for his entire 20 year career. In 2012 when Nash was just a shadow of his former self, Kobe essentially played point guard and "passed" us into the playoffs.

The problem with your tepid passive aggressive criticisms is that they are based, not on what you know, but what you've heard others say. You're free to ask questions if you like.

 

[Alidar Jarok]

Congrats to Allen Iverson getting into the Hall of Fame. All that practice paid off.

 

[Alidar Jarok]

Sixers GM Sam Hinkie resigns (possibly because the Sixers were going to hire Bryan Colangelo as co-GM and essentially outvote him). He writes a 13 Page Letter explaining his philosophy that I genuinely think is worth a read if you want to understand what he's been doing.

 

[gblews]

Don't have time to read the whole thing, but boy, does this letter make it sound like Hinkie was doing something other than plain old fashioned tanking, which is what he was doing. It's the reason he is out of a job now. Sixer management, to their credit, recognized this and brought in a guy with a different philosophy.

In the upcoming May draft lottery, we have what will likely be the best ever odds to get the #1 overall pick (nearly 30%), a roughly 50/50 chance at a top-2 pick (the highest ever), and a roughly 50/50 chance at two top-5 picks, which would be the best lottery night haul ever. That same bounce of a ping pong ball (almost a flip of a coin) will determine if we have three first round picks this year (unusual) or four (unprecedented). That's this year. Or this quarter, if you will. If you were to estimate the value of those firsts and the ones to follow, from this point forward we have essentially two NBA teams’ worth of first round pick value plus the third most second round picks in the league.

IMO, Hinkie lost sight of the real goal in the NBA and that is to win the championship, I think he got so caught up in 'setting the team up' (through tanking), that this became more of a goal than winning the championship. Kevin Ding at Bleacher Report wrote a great piece on this a day or two ago.

Congrats to both Shaq and AI for their HOF selections. But both of these guys are a source of frustration for me because I consider both to be underachievers. AI was one of the best athletes ever in the NBA, I cannot imagine how much better he could have been with a better work ethic. Same for Shaq.

Now, can someone tell me how Yao Ming, a player with a handful of all-star appearances, a slew of missed games because of injury, and no Finals appearances, makes the HOF?

 

[Alidar Jarok]

I was going to congratulate Shaq too, btw, but it undercut my joke, so I held off. To me, this sums up Yao Ming: Nation to Always Remember Yao Ming's 22-Point, 8-Rebound Game Against Milwaukee.

I'll just say this briefly about Sam Hinkie since it's obviously all moot now. I don't think it's fair to say he lost sight of the fact that the goal is to win a championship. His entire premise is a .400 record and an eighth seed isn't going to win a championship. In fact, it's no better than a dead last finish (and may very well be worse).

I agree fundamentally with him that the ultimate question should be whether a decision was a good one based on what you knew at the time, not whether it ultimately panned out. Yes, it would be great if you could consistently get a lucky GM, but, statistically speaking, luck is an outlier that will eventually lead to a reversion to the mean. I don't want a team to recklessly gamble, I'd prefer someone to make a bunch of statistically smart decisions over a period of time. Here's the criticism of Hinkie that I think is valid. Hinkie's theories are very much data driven, so the rules of the scientific method should apply. The scientific method is you have a hypothesis and then you test that hypothesis to see if you can falsify it or not. Well, how do you test whether a decision was a good one or not? The only way to measure it is whether it achieved the results desired. Sam Hinkie's emphasis on the process obscures the fact that it's impossible to truly distinguish bad luck from a bad decision. Joel Embiid will remain symptomatic of that. He may be a great player and his injury setback temporary. On the other hand, maybe the risk of drafting him remains something that was too high. There's no good way to retroactively test whether it was a smart decision that didn't pan out or not.

All that being said, he fixed a terrible draft situation for the Sixers. I suspect, if Colangelo has better success, a lot of it will turn on the picks Hinkie got the team.

 

[gblews]

I was going to congratulate Shaq too, btw, but it undercut my joke, so I held off. To me, this sums up Yao Ming: Nation to Always Remember Yao Ming's 22-Point, 8-Rebound Game Against Milwaukee.

I'll just say this briefly about Sam Hinkie since it's obviously all moot now. I don't think it's fair to say he lost sight of the fact that the goal is to win a championship. His entire premise is a .400 record and an eighth seed isn't going to win a championship. In fact, it's no better than a dead last finish (and may very well be worse).

I agree fundamentally with him that the ultimate question should be whether a decision was a good one based on what you knew at the time, not whether it ultimately panned out. Yes, it would be great if you could consistently get a lucky GM, but, statistically speaking, luck is an outlier that will eventually lead to a reversion to the mean. I don't want a team to recklessly gamble, I'd prefer someone to make a bunch of statistically smart decisions over a period of time. Here's the criticism of Hinkie that I think is valid. Hinkie's theories are very much data driven, so the rules of the scientific method should apply. The scientific method is you have a hypothesis and then you test that hypothesis to see if you can falsify it or not. Well, how do you test whether a decision was a good one or not? The only way to measure it is whether it achieved the results desired. Sam Hinkie's emphasis on the process obscures the fact that it's impossible to truly distinguish bad luck from a bad decision. Joel Embiid will remain symptomatic of that. He may be a great player and his injury setback temporary. On the other hand, maybe the risk of drafting him remains something that was too high. There's no good way to retroactively test whether it was a smart decision that didn't pan out or not.

All that being said, he fixed a terrible draft situation for the Sixers. I suspect, if Colangelo has better success, a lot of it will turn on the picks Hinkie got the team.

I still think you are arguing beside the point. Yes, draft picks are always a gamble and maybe Embiid and Oakafor work out in the end, but the reason Hinkie is now out of a job is because the major part of "the process" was tanking. But it was more than that. Hinkie and the Sixers somehow managed to allow the league and the public at large to become aware of their plan to tank until they had, what, a foolproof number of high picks with which to rebuild? Everyone and his brother knew the Sixers wanted to lose games. For any of it's teams to openly seek to lose is heretic to the NBA. I still question whether or not the league stepped in and "suggested" bringing in someone else to run the team or if Sixer management made the decision on their own.

In his letter Hinkie appears to be trying to make what he was doing sound like some great visionary quest. In reality, he was doing 3 things, tanking, hoarding picks, and trading for expiring contracts. I doubt there is a GM in the league who isn't aware of "the process" and how to implement it. The killing part for Hinkie, and the thing that most other GM's are also aware of; you don't make the tanking as obvious as Hinkie did. The league is pissed because it threatens the league's credibility, other GM's are (likely) pissed because, hell, anyone can do what he did. It wasn't rocket science, although to read that letter, you'd think it might just be.

 

[Alidar Jarok]

I ended up watching neither the Warriors nor the Lakers last night because a 10:30 start time is way too late for me. That being said, those who watched the Lakers for Kobe's final game made the right decision. That was an amazing way to end a career. While I felt (based on the highlights) that the Jazz may not have been so interested in guarding him early on, it was clear by the end that having three guys on him didn't matter. He didn't quite look like the Kobe of old physically, but he definitely was in one important way: He basically got one of the best all-time scoring nights through sheer force of will - at times looking like he achieved the impossible. Kobe Bryant managed to go out with one of the perfect nights. Congratulations.

 

[1001001]

A nice ending to a great career, and an unbelievably shitty season.

 

[gblews]

I had to go to bed and missed the whole second half and I live on the west coast. I was shocked this morning when I saw that Kobe had gotten 60. First thing I thought was, 'how many shots' -- BAM, shock number 2. From what I read though, he did go 15-30 in the second half which made me feel even better.

What a way to go out, setting new precedents and even a record, in his final game. One of the things that makes me so sad about his leaving is that we will likely see other guys come along who are as good athletically (Kobe and Iverson are the two best pure athletes to play in the league in my lifetime. IMO), but we'll likely never see the combination of athletic (and basketball) skills, drive, fearlessness, confidence, and competitiveness again.

Nike's farewell video is perfect. It focuses on the hate and Kobe's love for playing the villain. It's very funny and features former players and fans singing "I've Been Hating You To Long to Stop Now". But that was Kobe. It was the reason he always played so well on the road. He just loved going into other buildings and destroying hopes and dreams.

As much as some hated him, if he played for your team you would LOVVVVVVVE him. Nothing but love and respect for this warrior.

 

[Alidar Jarok]

A nice ending to a great career, and an unbelievably shitty season.

Keep an eye on the lottery. If you end with fourth, your season was a failure. If you successfully get in the lottery (and you should have the second most lottery balls), your season will be a success - since the Lakers had two goals this season - let Kobe say farewell and don't lose their draft pick to the Sixers.

 

[gblews]

Keep an eye on the lottery. If you end with fourth, your season was a failure. .

I wouldn't quite agree. We are going to lose the pick next season if we keep our pick this season. Next season will also be a lottery pick and if Byron is still the coach, it could be just as low a pick as this years. So we're either going to miss out on a lottery pick this year or next, or to look at it another way, we're going to get a lottery pick this year or next.