12.5 million viewer premiere

[Bones]

ENT premiered to 12.5 million viewers on UPN. TNG premiered at 27 million viewers. Another data point is 9.5 million viewers which was the premiere for Big Bang Theory (I chose this because it is a popular geek show on CBS which references Star Trek all the time - and appears to have peaked at about 19 million...another story in and of itself).

I know there are all sorts of factors behind those numbers, you can trend TNG to ENT and there are reasons behind the decline in the raw numbers, etc. My point being there still probably millions of people out there who would watch a Star Trek series, and CBS had the tentacles to reach them.

CBS hopes DSC will help them achieve 4 million viewers on All Access. Help. That is a pretty low bar. It factors in a speedbump of $6-$10/month for a subscription, but having access to UPN in 2001 was also a speedbump: you had to pay for cable or satellite service on a system that had shitty UPN with little interesting content, at least for me, beyond Star Trek. In fact, coming to think about it, I wasn't paying for cable until ENT premiered, and I had to get Dish TV because nobody else had UPN.

How many people will show up for a well-marketed Star Trek premiere broadcast on CBS itself? That is their plan, to get a lot of eyeballs on Star Trek without any speedbumps.

Not trying to start a debate on who will spend $ on CBSAA, etc. That debate is for this thread.
Just want to talk about how many eyeballs will show up at the premiere. Keep in mind CBS can advertise to 19 million viewers on one of their top shows. And repeat that advertising on other top shows. 12.5 million showing up for DSC ep. 1 would be fantastic. I think it can be achieved if CBS does their job and creates a lot of fan buzz ahead of time, and does a good job marketing with ads on their own network leading to the premiere.

What do people think? What is achievable? Stretch goals? Obstacles? Success factors?

 

[SPCTRE]

What do people think?

I think traditional TV ratings will be pretty much meaningless for STD

 

[Bones]

Ratings won't apply. It's about subscribers and driving subscribers.

 

[RAMA]

They'll figure out an equation that tells us how many people watched..streaming, network, etc. I'm guessing 14-16 million. The worldwide total might be 25 million

 

[Space Coast]

>Big Bang Theory
>Popular geek show

0/10 post OP

Also, premiere ratings for a show that is being streamed online doesn't matter nearly as much as TV premiere ratings due to the fact that bots are a thing that exist.

But I expect a worldwide total somewhere north of 15 million anyway.

 

[Guy Gardener]

There is no equation for streaming.

They will know exactly how many people are watching, and they'll even know when people paused, and at which point in the episode that some one gave up and never came back.

HOWEVER...

The pilot (and only the pilot?) is premiering on regular TV and will be subject to regular ratings.

 

[Bry_Sinclair]

With so much more choice now available then aiming for a 4 million viewership of the pilot is actually a pretty reasonable level. I'm just hoping that it's released to the rest of the world PDQ.

 

[RAMA]

I'm talking about aggregate total, repeat showings, etc. and yes I mentioned the network showing. It might even be the most digitally downloaded episode of the week.

There is no equation for streaming.

They will know exactly how many people are watching, and they'll even know when people paused, and at which point in the episode that some one gave up and never came back.

HOWEVER...

The pilot (and only the pilot?) is premiering on regular TV and will be subject to regular ratings.

 

[Guy Gardener]

Rama, apples and oranges.

Discovery would have to be compared to other premiere digital TV (first run) series on CBS All Access (opposed to reruns of Matlock)... Which there will not be?

CBSAA doesn't have original content by the score yet, so yes Discovery is very likely to be the most downloaded NEW show (from that day or week) because it is the only new show on All Access that week.

Putting episodes on Itunes, seems like a violation of the exclusivity that Netflix bought for itself.

So yes, on a framework like Netflix or itunes, it would be a horse race... But unless there is a massive paradigm shift approaching, that is not what this is.

(The Good Fight finishes next week, and Big Brother 18 finished months ago, and Wikipedia says they have nothing else new on the table.)

With so much more choice now available then aiming for a 4 million viewership of the pilot is actually a pretty reasonable level. I'm just hoping that it's released to the rest of the world PDQ.

Streaming doesn't work like that.

They get money from subscriptions and page clicks (6 dollars for advertising based All Access, $10 for no ads.), so what they want is perhaps in the shape of three obvious positive outcomes...

1. Some one watches all of Discovery.

2. Someone watches all of Discovery so slowly that they have renew their subscription several time to finish it.

3. Someone watches Discovery, and then feels compelled to spend a year, renewing their subscription over and over again, to watch the back catalogue of old Star Trek.

 

[Draculasaurus]

I think the Star Trek fan base has grown in the streaming era.
Remember, the last time a Star Trek show came out, it was released on VHS.*
(Yes really. In the United Kingdom the first season of Enterprise was released on VHS as well as DVD. The very tail end of VHS, but it's true. It's been a while.)
It seems like a lot of new people are in to it, and not just the recent movies, but new fans who prefer the television format for Star Trek.

 

[Guy Gardener]

It means associating your credit card with another new website.

Or if you're super old, getting a bill in the mail, and taking 6 dollars to the post office once a month.

Streaming infers convenience, but this is really not.

 

[jefferiestubes8]

I think they will throw a lot of promos at this. Look at the pilot premiere for Supergirl on CBS in October 26, 2015. That was a big splashy network premiere of a network show.

ratings
Pilot = 12.96 million viewers
Mid Season = 8.77
source

pilot budget cost:
14 million
source

Also look at ratings for The Good Wife. CBSAA original series that had a network premiere.

 

[Guy Gardener]

The Good FIGHT got one episode on Terrestrial TV.

Supergirl had 22 episodes on CBS terestrially.

A question of returns.

CBS (regular) may be forced to advertise that All Access exists, but it's probably a separate wing of the company, so their money is separate, and regular CBS doesn't get a cut of All Access' profits no matter how much ad-time they hand over gratis.

 

[Trajet]

It's more or less essential that Discovery scores a massive audience on its CBS debut, or it won't have a hope in hell of helping CBS All Access get to the all important 4 million subscribers. With that in mind, I'll be very surprised (and a little bit disappointed) if the broadcast premiere of Discovery doesn't match or slightly exceed Supergirl's debut audience of 12.96 million.

 

[M-Red]

If CBS wants the Trek premier to succeed -- and they want to expand CBS-AA -- then they need to have a professional marketing blitz like they give a damn.

Paramount needs to do the same with the movie franchise.


I just hope they don't half-ass it and then blame the franchise. Market it and make it feel like a special event. Get people excited to see it FFS.


Otherwise, let Disney purchase the property and watch them do real work.

 

[Bones]

If CBS wants the Trek premier to succeed -- and they want to expand CBS-AA -- then they need to have a professional marketing blitz like they give a damn.

Paramount needs to do the same with the movie franchise.


I just hope they don't half-ass it and then blame the franchise. Market it and make it feel like a special event. Get people excited to see it FFS.


Otherwise, let Disney purchase the property and watch them do real work.

Funny I was thinking about Disney and Trek the other day. My exact thought was that if Disney got ahold of Trek they would turn it into a multi billion-dollar movie universe with a broad appeal that satisfied (most of) the hardcore fanbase. Why can't Paramount do that? I agree their lame marketing is a big part of the problem. They have turned Trek into an underperforming franchise at an underperforming studio. Hopefully their new CEO can straighten things out. Otherwise I hope they sell off assets such as Trek to someone who can do the job right.

Getting back to DSC, my hope is CBS will be smarter about marketing it than Paramount. They need to market it hard to drive a large audience at the premiere, who convert to AA subscribers. I honestly don't know how good they are at marketing their own shows on their network because I watch very little TV. But I will be keeping an eye on social media, news outlets and fan news channels, looking for organic buzz as well as loud noise driven by the network itself.

 

[F. King Daniel]

As I've said before - Disney have Star Wars and Guardians of the Galaxy. They need Star Trek as much as the Enterprise needs a third nacelle.

Content-wise, I'm very happy but I hope whatever comes of the current Paramount shakeups results in much better marketing for their films.

 

[Mudd]

At least four million Trekkies in the U.S. will order this thing up in their sleep.

 

[Guy Gardener]

Well that's assuming the need for instant gratification.

"Susan, it's your father, which one of your kids is the smart one? Yeah, I thought so. I need that one to register me to some bullshit called CBS All Access."

 

[Akiraprise]

I think the premiere on CBS will likely net over 12 million viewers. There is still a market for good Trek on broadcast network tv. TPTB just can't seem to figure out how to tap it.
After it goes to AA it'll have 12 million illegal downloaders.
I will be a good little Trekkie and shell out the cash for AA though. I'll give it a chance.