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12.5 million viewer premiere

How many people do you think will show up for the DSC premiere?

  • More than 12.5 million

  • 10-12.5 million

  • 7-10 million

  • 4-7 million

  • Below 4 million


Results are only viewable after voting.
Well that's assuming the need for instant gratification.

"Susan, it's your father, which one of your kids is the smart one? Yeah, I thought so. I need that one to register me to some bullshit called CBS All Access."

Fortunately, my littlest brother is seventeen years younger than me. He can probably expect a phone call at some point . ....
 
My exact thought was that if Disney got ahold of Trek they would turn it into a multi billion-dollar movie universe with a broad appeal that satisfied (most of) the hardcore fanbase. Why can't Paramount do that?

Probably because Star Wars is and always has been several times more popular than Trek ever was, particularly among kids, and wasn't driven into the ground over the course of 15+ years.

I'm surprised they managed to eke out as much as they did from the Kelvin films, given the failures they were coming off, and doubt Disney or anyone else could have done much better.
 
Parents wanting to shut their turds up, every 2 years, for 2 beautiful hours, make a big hub-bub about a special day where as a family, they all go to see Star Wars.

Mom is not going to stop watching her soaps, and dad is not going to stop watching sports, so only children living in a house with more than 2 TVs has the slimmest chance of getting addicted to Star Trek.

(Massive cliches, sorry.)

(I lived with only one parent, who was consistently too drunk to operate a television, and no siblings, which is a magic sweet spot.)
 
Probably because Star Wars is and always has been several times more popular than Trek ever was, particularly among kids, and wasn't driven into the ground over the course of 15+ years.

I'm surprised they managed to eke out as much as they did from the Kelvin films, given the failures they were coming off, and doubt Disney or anyone else could have done much better.

TWOK had the most successful movie premiere of it's time. TVH hit #5 in 1986 and had the best opening weekend of that year. FC was the #1 movie its opening weekend. Trek movies can deliver.

I look at it like this: JJ Abrams was a constant factor between Star Trek and Star Wars. TFA buried the Kelvin episodes in terms of box office. So with the same director, is the difference the studio or the appeal of the franchise? I think both are factors, however there is plenty of opportunity for the studio to do much better.
 
TWOK had the most successful movie premiere of it's time.

Compared to what? TWOK may have had a bigger opening weekend than other films in 1982, but in fact five other films made more money at the box office: E.T., Tootsie, An Officer and a Gentleman, Rocky III, and Porky's. All of those films broke 100 million at the box office; TWOK did not. And if by "of its time" you mean anything more extensive than the year of its release, then...just no.
 
Opening week ends was not a thing back then, because movies did not open simultaneously nationally. Movies, physically film in a can, would move around the country slowly, only moving on to the next town when it was certain that it had rinsed every cent out of where ever the fuck it was in one one horse town or another.

It was only a predictive indicator.

They actually made money slowly by moving across the country even slowlier because of increased demand, that theatres were still being filled at 8 weeks, compared to theatres being empty at 2 weeks.
 
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TWOK had the most successful movie premiere of it's time. TVH hit #5 in 1986 and had the best opening weekend of that year. FC was the #1 movie its opening weekend. Trek movies can deliver.

Sure, but the first Star Wars movie made four times as much as TWOK in the US alone in its original release, and did a hell of a lot better outside the US.

It also made more than triple TMP's take, and did it on a far smaller budget.

The Phantom Menace made five times as much as First Contact in the US, and more than seven times as much as it worldwide. First Contact was 17th, behind Michael, in 1996 US box office take. What the hell is Michael?!

Trek films can make solid money, but they are not and never have been in the league of Star Wars at the box office. A studio will not change that, and I can't imagine they'd really want to try when they already have more lucractive IPs.
 
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Probably because Star Wars is and always has been several times more popular than Trek ever was, particularly among kids, and wasn't driven into the ground over the course of 15+ years.
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I'm based in the UK so wondering if viewership isn't generally decreasing across the board? I think it's important to compare only to other shows on CBS and they want it to be a flagship show, so anything less than 9 million (ie less than TBBT) would be disappointing. However, I think it's ultimate success will be judged on how many subscribers it adds to All Access. Furthermore, the international market that will also be of big importance. Netflix is essentially partnering with CBS on this show, and they are also banking on it driving subscriptions.
 
midnightz, since there are only currently 2 millionish subscribers to CBS All Access, and it's the hope of CBS All Access that Discovery will double that to 4 millionish, it's highly unlikely that...

The pilot will air on CBS, and it's numbers don't matter, because it's pre-cancelled. Airing only the pilot on regular TV is not about ratings, it's basically a movie of the week as far as selling ad time is concerned, because Discovery on regular CBS is a 2 hour (I assume the pilot is a two parter?) advertisement for CBS All Access.

Drug dealer says "The first hit is free."

CBS and CBS All Access are rivals living under the same roof. There is synergy, but they are still both trying to impress Mom and dad (there's a parent company with almost the same name) more than the other siblings. So what might happen if Discovery gets 20 million viewers, is that CBS (Broadcasting) may not be allowed more access to Discovery, but they can petition to make their own Star Trek inside the Discovery Pocket Universe, which of course is an unlikely and unrealistic possibility.
 
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...And if by "of its time" you mean anything more extensive than the year of its release, then...just no.

According to this chart, TWOK held the record for the most successful opening weekend, until being displaced by Return Of The Jedi the next year.

Trek films can make solid money, but they are not and never have been in the league of Star Wars at the box office. A studio will not change that, and I can't imagine they'd really want to try when they already have more lucractive IPs.

Like I said, I think the gap between Trek and Star Wars is both the appeal of franchise and the studio's execution. The component of the gap due to appeal will probably never be closed. But I believe that component of the gap due to studio execution could be narrowed by a better studio. I'd like to see that studio be an improved Paramount. I think other studios could do a better job, I was speaking hypothetically about Disney and what they could do, but I doubt a sale of the asset would ever occur for many reasons.
 
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I was refuting the assertion that TWOK wasn't the best opening weekend of all time at the point in time of it's release, and provided a reference with data.

Regarding Star Wars vs Star Trek: I was clarifying my opinion regarding factors of success including franchise appeal and studio execution.
 
According to this chart, TWOK held the record for the most successful opening weekend, until being displaced by Return Of The Jedi the next year.

Which supports what I said:

And if by "of its time" you mean anything more extensive than the year of its release, then...just no.

It held that box office record for the year of its release, and was then displaced by ROTJ - and not by a little; the third Star Wars film made 23 million its opening weekend to TWOK's 14 million.

And, of course, there were other movies made in the years before, during and after the release of TWOK that made far more than it did in terms of total box office.

BTW, the least successful Star Wars film, "Attack Of The Clones," beat TWOK's lifetime gross by 230 million dollars. TWOK was a very successful film, but it was not a world-beater.
 
Well I guess we're clarifying clarifications at this point. Does "anything more extensive than the year of its release" mean "the # 1 release of 1984" (which is what I thought you were asserting and was correcting) or does it mean "it was the # 1 release of all time then displaced the next year by Star Wars" which is what you are saying that you meant.
 
You were trying to draw a parallel between Wars and Trek then to Wars and Trek now by arguing WOK had a good opening weekend. It did. However, as pointed out by both Dennis and Guy, opening weekends don't tell the whole story.
Even with its strong opening, WOK didn't even finish in the top five for total take of its year. And, if we assume "of its time" to mean a five year swing (So 79-83), it doesn't even crack the top 20 for total take.

None the less, if the point is to directly compare Trek to Wars, then compare WoK's $78M to Jedi's $252M. That's more than three times as much. I'm pretty sure that suggests Jedi "burred" WoK at the BO.
 
Like I said, there will be a rating for the premiere because it's on a network, plus there will be other totals based on the subscriptions that are a known quantity. Maybe that will be 2 to 4 million viewers, who knows. But the overall amount will probably be higher than 12.5 million.


Rama, apples and oranges.

Discovery would have to be compared to other premiere digital TV (first run) series on CBS All Access (opposed to reruns of Matlock)... Which there will not be?

CBSAA doesn't have original content by the score yet, so yes Discovery is very likely to be the most downloaded NEW show (from that day or week) because it is the only new show on All Access that week.

Putting episodes on Itunes, seems like a violation of the exclusivity that Netflix bought for itself.

So yes, on a framework like Netflix or itunes, it would be a horse race... But unless there is a massive paradigm shift approaching, that is not what this is.

(The Good Fight finishes next week, and Big Brother 18 finished months ago, and Wikipedia says they have nothing else new on the table.)



Streaming doesn't work like that.

They get money from subscriptions and page clicks (6 dollars for advertising based All Access, $10 for no ads.), so what they want is perhaps in the shape of three obvious positive outcomes...

1. Some one watches all of Discovery.

2. Someone watches all of Discovery so slowly that they have renew their subscription several time to finish it.

3. Someone watches Discovery, and then feels compelled to spend a year, renewing their subscription over and over again, to watch the back catalogue of old Star Trek.
 
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