I'm not starting a new thread about this. Not at this point, anyway. But, I've just re-watched all the TNG Movies. Literally finished Nemesis less than 30 seconds ago. I'm going to go straight from that to Picard Season 3. Let's see how this plays, essentially going from one movie to the next.
EDITED TO ADD: I'm pausing the first episode to say that while PIC Season 3 feels different, it doesn't feel any more different than Generations, First Contact, Insurrection, and Nemesis felt different from each other. I would say going straight from the TNG Movies to PIC Season 3 doesn't feel jarring. Which is good. It also helps that I like PIC Season 3 better than most of them.
So, yeah. If anyone wanted to skip the first two seasons and go straight to PIC Season 3, I'd say go for it. Any differences in Picard's or anyone else's lives can be chalked up to "It's over 20 years later! These people lived lives in-between."
DOUBLE EDIT: The only change I'd make, so the first episode of PIC S3 rolls better off the TNG Movies while still being PIC, is to hold off on cutting to Raffi until after Picard and Riker are having dinner with Shaw and Seven. That's a natural break-away point. Inserting the first Raffi scene earlier, where she's meeting with the Orion, felt jarring when it was. We were still getting into the flow of, "It feels like a TNG Movie, but done better!"
I'd go: Crusher scene, Picard and Laris at the Vineyard, Picard and Riker at 10-Forward, Picard and Riker at Space Dock, everything on the Titan from the inspection to the dinner, then cut to M'Talas Prime with Raffi, have her exchange with the Orion, then have her looking at a picture of granddaughter and talk to Starfleet Intelligence, a.k.a. Worf. It flows better that way.
TRIPLE EDIT: Visually, I don't notice PIC Season 3 taking any type of hit, going from the movies to this. They managed to make something look like a movie, with much less of a budget proportionately.