Economy

[Surefire]

With the recession possibly already a year old, and not showing signs of letting up, where do you see it peaking? Severe recession, or possibly soft depression?

It seems like we are already in a severe recession, with terrible jobs figures and major bail outs of several industries.

How far do you all see this going?

When we finally get out of this, maybe in 2010, will the recovery be fairly mild?

 

[All Seeing Eye]

I see people fighting over the last tin of baked beans on the store shelf.

 

[RoJoHen]

Certain industries have already surpassed the Recession mark and are in the midst of their own Depressions.

Many stores have been unable to move merchandise, even now during the Christmas season. As a result, many stores have had to close simply because they can't afford their rent.

I read that many stores are planning on cutting their prices drastically in the next few weeks (especially right after Christmas) in a desperate attempt to get stuff off their shelves.

It's not looking good.

 

[All Seeing Eye]

I swear to god i'm going to buy a bread making machine, a toaster, a toastie machine, a pie making machine, a food processor, a vegetable steamer, a juicer, a small fryer and an electricity generator to power them all with and i'm going to stock up my entire basement with food and drink. I'm also gunna stock up on Gas canisters and buy a small gas heater.

I'm getting ready for the worse.

 

[NCC1968]

I see people fighting over the last tin of baked beans on the store shelf.

This is when lead is more vulauble than gold.........

 

[Surefire]

I see people fighting over the last tin of baked beans on the store shelf.

This is when lead is more vulauble than gold.........

"Hot lead" may indeed be valuable.

 

[Holdfast]

Magic 8 Ball says: "Severe Recession".


We've just had what will probably be second worst year for the stock market ever. It's probably found its bottom now but the stock market is often a leading indicator of economic activity, so I would expect pretty bad economic news over the next year, with things starting to recover towards the end of the year and into 2010. Given that by some measures the current recession started in December 2007, that's a pretty long & severe recession.

The global aspect of this recession also puts it into the "severe" league. Often at least one or two parts of the world are a bit less affected than others, but this time everywhere's been hit really bad, at the same time.

The possibility of a depression has been averted in my opinion. If the banks had undergone a cascade failure earlier this year, a very severe depression is exactly what would have happened. But still, we're in for a severe recession I think. But recessions are healthy too, winnowing away dead wood.

 

[Brolan]

Severe recession. But we all need to go out there and spend unless you are certain of losing your job.

Hoarding your money puts more people out of work, that leads to more hoarding, that leads to more layoffs, etc.

You've heard of: "Drill, baby, drill!" ? We now need: "Spend, baby, spend!"

 

[RoJoHen]

I certainly haven't stopped spending, even though my wallet can't afford it.

 

[Dayton3]

My opinion?

Severe recession with unemployment approaching the 10% line in 2009.

2009 will be a hard year.

A slow recovery beginning in 2010 and progressing into 2011 with unemployment dropping very slowly to the 8-9% range.

A stronger recovery in 2012 with unemployment dropping below 8%.

So the worst part of the recession will be in 2009 with recovery beginning in 2010.

But due to slow job growth, it will still seem things are bad well into 2011.

 

[Surefire]

Great use of the bailout money...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081221/executive_bailouts.html

 

[Cutter John]

I keep wondering how much the media has to do with all this. I don't blame them for reporting the facts, but lord, everytime I listen to the news or read a paper its nothing but "OMG The economy is tanking! We're doomed!". its no wonder people are too scared to spend money. The news weasels make it sound like we're all going to be lined up outside soup kitchens by this time next week.

On a personal level I've been having a hard time getting worried, as my restaurant job is pretty recession proof. If anything I'm doing better than last year. *knock on wood*

And certainly the flow of traffic to the indian Casino up the road hasn't slackened. Not to mention the 'price slashing certainly hasn't effected grocery prices. Personally I'd be glad to spend more. But I just can't think of anything I really want that badly.

 

[hamudm]

I keep wondering how much the media has to do with all this. I don't blame them for reporting the facts, but lord, everytime I listen to the news or read a paper its nothing but "OMG The economy is tanking! We're doomed!". its no wonder people are too scared to spend money. The news weasels make it sound like we're all going to be lined up outside soup kitchens by this time next week.

On a personal level I've been having a hard time getting worried, as my restaurant job is pretty recession proof. If anything I'm doing better than last year. *knock on wood*

And certainly the flow of traffic to the indian Casino up the road hasn't slackened. Not to mention the 'price slashing certainly hasn't effected grocery prices. Personally I'd be glad to spend more. But I just can't think of anything I really want that badly.

Agreed in that a good chunk of the problems likely involve perception. Give people enough reason to hoard their cash and they will hoard, expecting the worst.

 

[Ward Fowler]

My opinion?

Severe recession with unemployment approaching the 10% line in 2009.

2009 will be a hard year.

A slow recovery beginning in 2010 and progressing into 2011 with unemployment dropping very slowly to the 8-9% range.

A stronger recovery in 2012 with unemployment dropping below 8%.

So the worst part of the recession will be in 2009 with recovery beginning in 2010.

But due to slow job growth, it will still seem things are bad well into 2011.

I agree. I would guess that's the most likely scenario. However, I'm afraid that unemployment may exceed 10% by a point or two.

 

[jamestyler]

I say we're in the severe range. Though I'm in agreement with Ward Fowler that unemployment will be beyond 10% - though thats in the UK where I'm sure employment is higher than that already (I really can't face checking the figures).

 

[Apogeal Alpha01]

What a bunch of whiners. There is no recession. Oh geez.

 

[Ward Fowler]

What a bunch of whiners. There is no recession. Oh geez.

Phil Gramm, is that you?

 

[TheBrew]

What a bunch of whiners. There is no recession. Oh geez.

Phil Gramm, is that you?

Maybe, they both have their heads in the sand.

 

[Bob The Skutter]

I say we're in the severe range. Though I'm in agreement with Ward Fowler that unemployment will be beyond 10% - though thats in the UK where I'm sure employment is higher than that already (I really can't face checking the figures).

Last report I heard said 6% in the UK.

December 17 2008 - The unemployment rate rose to 6.0% - up 0.4% over the quarter and 0.7% on last year. 29.4 million people were in work in the period August to October according to the labour force survey (LFS). The downturn in the economy continues to have an impact on employment figures - down by 115,000 on the quarter, but still up by 57,000 on the last year.

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

I keep wondering how much the media has to do with all this. I don't blame them for reporting the facts, but lord, everytime I listen to the news or read a paper its nothing but "OMG The economy is tanking! We're doomed!". its no wonder people are too scared to spend money. The news weasels make it sound like we're all going to be lined up outside soup kitchens by this time next week.

I agree. I'll watch a report along these lines, and later in the same report, they'll list one of the causes as consumer confidence being down.

Gee, you think?