Canadian 2021 Federal Election

[Marc]

So this is rich. This is a partial excerpt of a quote from Erin O'Toole who was commenting on the allegations raised in the excerpt published from JWR's new book:



Not saying he's wrong, but talk about the pot and kettle. This is the person who painted himself as a "true blue Conservative" in order to beat the more progressive MacKay in the leadership contest, and then as soon as he won... he suddenly wasn't one anymore.

This is what worries me about all the centrist and progressive voters who are tired of Trudeau and look at O'Toole and think that he seems in line with their values. How do they know he will continue to express those values if he manages to pull off a win?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opi...tooles-position-on-something-just-wait-a-few/

https://nationalpost.com/news/polit...ay-be-a-matter-of-expediency-in-this-election

Not to mention... if Trudeau suddenly had to leave office for whatever reason, you can be reasonably sure that whoever his successor was would continue on generally the same path and reflect generally the same values. Say O'Toole does hold the values he currently claims to... if he manages to win, and then ends up having to leave office for whatever reason, can you honestly say that his successor in the CPC would feel, and govern, the same way?

o'toole doesn't worry me too much - it's the social conservative and other elements within the cpc caucus that I'm concerned about.

pierre poliverre likes his conspricacy theories about socialism and the great resent, another claimed that trudeau wanted to legalise pedaphilla (and o'toole ducked and weaved when asked about her).

 

[Timewalker]

I'd vote green, but the thing is, our local green candidate has basically admitted recently that he wouldn't win. He knows he won't because both the NDP and the Liberals have more of a hold. At this point, the Green party is almost like the Bloc, in that it most likely never will win, but would still like to advance its ideologies.

None of the leaders are perfect. My grandparents always voted Liberal (federally) when Pierre Trudeau was still around, but after he resigned our family switched to the NDP. Not that it makes any difference in Central Alberta. The Reformacon incumbent will get in again, even though there are three other right-wing parties running here.

Yeah, the problem I see with the Conservatives is that I've never felt their policies aligned much with what's happening in the North, so like you, I'll never likely vote for them. And historically, our riding has flipped back and forth between the Liberals and the NDP, so it could go either way, and it's almost always been a vote to keep the Conservatives away.

If Justin Trudeau turned up on my doorstep, I'd be really tempted to shove that cream pie in my fridge right in his face. Honestly, WTF was that idiot thinking, calling an unnecessary election in the middle of a pandemic? We have enough trouble in Alberta, what with Jason Kenney horning in on the municipal elections with his ridiculous Senate election ballot and parachuting UCP-friendly candidates onto the mayoral, aldermanic, and school board ballots so they'll vote for things the UCP wants - like that POS draft curriculum.

This is enough to deal with. We really don't need a federal election on top of it.

So my best advice is the same as in 2015: ABC. Anybody But Conservatives - whichever party's candidate has the best chance of defeating the CPC candidate, even if you have to hold your nose to do it.

I've already voted, by in-home special ballot. That's not a method that CBC ever mentions even though I've been sending them emails about it. It's infuriating how disabled voters are being ignored; some people actually think we're not allowed to vote.

 

[Owain Taggart]

None of the leaders are perfect. My grandparents always voted Liberal (federally) when Pierre Trudeau was still around, but after he resigned our family switched to the NDP. Not that it makes any difference in Central Alberta. The Reformacon incumbent will get in again, even though there are three other right-wing parties running here.

Yeah, one of the things I've learned over the years is that it doesn't pay to be party-loyal due to it being in constant flux. Nothing would ever get done if we were to vote for the same party all the time.

 

[Timewalker]

Yeah, one of the things I've learned over the years is that it doesn't pay to be party-loyal due to it being in constant flux. Nothing would ever get done if we were to vote for the same party all the time.

This is why Alberta had 80 years of right-wing rule, 4 years of NDP, and 2 years of the UCP which is Jason Kenney continuing the Dark Decade on a smaller scale.

I've voted for a variety of left-wing parties over the years, not always the majors. If a promising independent candidate or new party came along with a good platform I'd give them a vote.

It's encouraging to see several Rhinoceros Party candidates running in Manitoba.

 

[Owain Taggart]

It's encouraging to see several Rhinoceros Party candidates running in Manitoba.

Heh Haven't encounted any of them, but the name made me chuckle the first time I saw it. Have to say, some parties get really creative with their party names. You can see a history of them on Wikipedia.

 

[Avro Arrow]

Mailed my ballot today. So as long as Canada Post can deliver something to another address in my same city within a week, I should be all set.

 

[Marc]

Well one former pollster has made his prediction on the election though I think he's way off base given the liberals a good chance of a majority (trudeau has pissed too many voters off with his brushes with the ethics commissioner and the timing of the election).

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/con...-learned-so-far-in-this-federal-election.html

I wouldn't say there's no path to victory for the tories but majority would be next a miracle (CBC's poll tracker put it at 1%)

 

[Avro Arrow]

Well one former pollster has made his prediction on the election though I think he's way off base given the liberals a good chance of a majority (trudeau has pissed too many voters off with his brushes with the ethics commissioner and the timing of the election).

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/con...-learned-so-far-in-this-federal-election.html

I wouldn't say there's no path to victory for the tories but majority would be next a miracle (CBC's poll tracker put it at 1%)

Well, the headline says it "may surprise" me, and it certainly does. I haven't seen anything out of any of the polls to make me think that a Liberal majority is "probable". But I guess I'm not a professional pollster, and he is, so...

Re: #13, I'm willing to bet Jagmeet Singh didn't see his "one role" as "escort[ing] in a Conservative majority"!

 

[Marc]

Re: #13, I'm willing to bet Jagmeet Singh didn't see his "one role" as "escort[ing] in a Conservative majority"!

well courtesy of first past the post, the best way for the tories to win a majority is the ndp syphon votes as away from the liberals.

Given the ndp has as much chance of win government as I do being elected prime minister that would be the main thing singh can do.

 

[Avro Arrow]

Given the ndp has as much chance of win government as I do being elected prime minister that would be the main thing singh can do.

Main thing he *can* do, sure. I just meant he certainly didn't see ushering in a Conservative majority as his one role... that would largely be anathema to him.

I'm sure he sees his role as winning enough seats to control the balance of power in a minority government, in order to try to get some NDP initiatives passed as payment for propping up the victor.

 

[Timewalker]

I'm sure he sees his role as winning enough seats to control the balance of power in a minority government, in order to try to get some NDP initiatives passed as payment for propping up the victor.

This has been the role of the NDP for decades, other than the one time they surprised everyone by becoming the Official Opposition.

Most of the good things we have that the Liberals passed happened because it was the NDP pushing them to do it.

 

[Owain Taggart]

I'm sure he sees his role as winning enough seats to control the balance of power in a minority government, in order to try to get some NDP initiatives passed as payment for propping up the victor.

Yeah, the way I see it, he's trying to get the party back to the level that it was when Jack Layton was the leader.

 

[Timewalker]

Unfortunatly, Jagmeet Singh doesn't have the charisma of Jack Layton.

 

[Avro Arrow]

Most of the good things we have that the Liberals passed happened because it was the NDP pushing them to do it.

This is why I actually prefer minority governments, even though political commentators don't seem to like them, and the two main parties hate them.

With a Liberal minority, (hopefully) they need to be more progressive.

With a Conservative minority, (hopefully) it prevents them from acting on their worst impulses.

Granted, that doesn't work as well when the party holding the balance of power isn't in a position to handle another election, so the governing party "governs like a majority", knowing that the balance of power party will go along because they can't afford to do otherwise.

 

[Owain Taggart]

You know, the unfortunate side-effect of this snap election means that we've had little time to acquaint ourselves with our local candidates. They're all new this time around. New Liberal candidate, new NDP candidate, new PC Candidate.

And yeah, I agree, parties do better when they've got someone to hold them to account.

 

[Marc]

Glad that polling day is tomorrow and all the damn election ads will disappear and the phone calls will stop.

Looked at polls from The Star, CBC and 338Canada.com and it looks like we're going to be right back where started - thanks a fucking lot justin.

post media doesn't have any polling links but even the national post has story up that it looks like the liberals will hang on.

my riding could be set to break it's history of being a bell weather riding. One poll puts it as a tossup, another says leaning conservative but neither of the leaving candidates has been impressive with both shooting themselves in the foot and the incumbent liberal being utter waste of space (could be a double loss as city gossip is they are newly single).

Depending on the final numbers, o'toole's days could be numbered. the social conservatives and hard right of the party hate his guts and are very unhappy with some of his policies. I wouldn't be suprised if the cpc makes a jump back the right which could see a 4th win for the boy blunder down the track unless he completely and utterly screws things.

And for all the noise the tories and ndp have been making about the election being called during the pandemic I wonder how long before we hear talk of motions of no confidence and bringing the govt down? I suspect there will be case of collective amnesia and it won't be long.

 

[Avro Arrow]

Glad that polling day is tomorrow and all the damn election ads will disappear and the phone calls will stop.

I actually like elections. But admittedly, I don't watch a lot of TV, so right now I'm only seeing political ads during the half-hour that Lower Decks is on!

Looked at polls from The Star, CBC and 338Canada.com and it looks like we're going to be right back where started

That does seem to be the consensus. Personally, I prefer that result to a Conservative victory... but it does seem like a grand waste of time and money for no apparent change. Of course, polls have been wrong before, so we'll have to see how it shakes out. Even if the overall results end up being the same, it will be interesting to see how the final seat count shakes out, and how that affects the balance of power and the dynamic in the next Parliament.

Depending on the final numbers, o'toole's days could be numbered.

Interestingly, I've read the same thing about Trudeau recently. Speculation is that, even if he ends up winning, if his seat count goes down, then his days are probably numbered.

And for all the noise the tories and ndp have been making about the election being called during the pandemic I wonder how long before we hear talk of motions of no confidence and bringing the govt down? I suspect there will be case of collective amnesia and it won't be long.

I can't imagine any of the parties will be super-quick to kick off another election really soon. They say the average length of a minority government in Canada is 18 months. I have to suspect that the opposition parties (whoever they end up being!) won't start rumbling until at least a year has gone by.

 

[DEWLine]

I am still scared that we're going to end up with another Bad Outcome, instead of keeping Trudeau the Younger on a tight, centre-left leash.

 

[Avro Arrow]

I am still scared that we're going to end up with another Bad Outcome, instead of keeping Trudeau the Younger on a tight, centre-left leash.

I feel that. Hopefully it all ends up OK. I guess we'll see over the next couple days. (Apparently because of the increase in mail-in ballots this year, we might not have a definitive result tomorrow night.)

I object to pretty much everything the PPC stands for, but it would be nice if their support was high enough to siphon off enough CPC votes to tip some close ridings to the Liberals or NDP. (But not high enough to actually end up winning anywhere!)

 

[DEWLine]

Amen to that, friend!

FYI, my mother, brother and I all cast our ballots over the lunch hour today. So that part of the ongoing work of democracy is done.