1. Starfleet Academy is released. Ongoing if I like the series, just for one month if I don't.
That would be 2026.
2. Legacy is greenlit.
That would be never.
Whichever happens first. Otherwise, it's been real.
Channeling Nostradamus's power to see into the future (which he didn't actually have, but that's another story), I think that if Skydance buys Paramount, they will be scrapping whatever plans CBS/P+ had for future Trek shows/TV movies, and will instead do their own thing.