• Welcome! The TrekBBS is the number one place to chat about Star Trek with like-minded fans.
    If you are not already a member then please register an account and join in the discussion!

Star Trek levels of civilization/technology

RAMA

Admiral
Admiral
Star Trek has used something similar to the Kardashev scales of civilization, and Ray Kurzweil also has a parallel classification. It seems to me that ST is far too conservative...while the same classes may exist, it may just be that development of civilizations who make it past global ability to destroy themselves--mainly with atomic weapons or reactors--develop at such a fast rate the Organians and the like come into being and depart so quickly we'd hardly see a hint of them. We don't need to postulate thousands or millions of years for them, once they hit a "singularity" in development, all bets are off...in fact, civilizations like those in ST, may have come after thousands of such occurrences already!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale

http://bigthink.com/ideas/40291

So has ST erred on the side of timidity? Where should they go/have gone, and where do you think we are going?

RAMA
 
Well, the writers of trek purposely did not take a lot of the technologies presented on the show to their logical possibilities in order to keep the stories relateable.

The show would have flopped if it was about Q - like humans with unimaginable power every week.

In-universe you can try to explain the relatively low tech of the 23rd century in relation to the current real world rate of advancement as a result of the global war later this century.
 
I notice a lot of arrogance among people today when it comes to technology. Some think we'll be some sort of gods in a few hundred years.

There is no way technological development is such a sharp exponential curve, even though it is exponential. It is random and limited by scientific discoveries. Even if it was a very steep curve, we haven't made that many advancements lately to say that by 24th century, we'll be vastly more advanced than humans in Trek. Many people seem to think that iPods and flatscreen tv's and cell phones are giant leaps, but they are only derivative technologies.

IMO, the last major scientific breakthrough humanity made happened 200 years ago when electricity was discoverd/electric motor was built by Faraday. We've been reaping the benefits ever since, as the entire civilization today depends on electricity. If we didn't have it, the world wouldn't be much different from 18th century.

Invention of computers and dicovery of the power of atoms were also important, but owed it to prior discovery of electricity, just like everything else. Since then, we have slowly improved technologically, but such improvement is finite without new major scientific discoveries. I think we would be lucky to be as advanced as 24th century Trek humans when our own 24th century rolls around.

In Star Trek, humans made a major scientific breakthrough by finding out about subspace and using it to bend normal space and break the lightspeed barrier. This changed them completely, and for the next 200 years they reap the benefits of this major breakthrough. By the time we see Kirk's era, we see a bunch of derivative technologies such asligthspeed communications and weapons.

They also seem to have discovered some way to seperate an object and send it somewhere else, and rematerialize it. This leads not only to transportation of humans, but easy creation of food for the masses, another derivative technology.

They can harness the power of M/AM reactions to release energies several orders of magnitute larger that what we have. This than has a whole string of benefits.

In 200 years they made several huge leaps, while we did 1 leap and couple of small steps. I don't think they've erred on the side of timidity, and to suggest that they are not technologically advanced is ridiculous. You don't have to be a clone with a robotic arm to be considered advanced. If you take the above Kardashev scale, Star Trek humans can be considered well beyond level 2, which is incredible considering that we are currently not even 1.
 
^Your argument regarding electricity also works for the steam engine, the printing press, and the wheel among many others. It also works for the transistor, penicillin, and winged aircraft.

There is no guarantee that every technology will be more advanced than the ones depicted in Star Trek, but some, most notably information tech, will most likely surpass it far sooner than the 23rd century.
 
I notice a lot of arrogance among people today when it comes to technology. Some think we'll be some sort of gods in a few hundred years.

There is no way technological development is such a sharp exponential curve, even though it is exponential. It is random and limited by scientific discoveries. Even if it was a very steep curve, we haven't made that many advancements lately to say that by 24th century, we'll be vastly more advanced than humans in Trek. Many people seem to think that iPods and flatscreen tv's and cell phones are giant leaps, but they are only derivative technologies.

IMO, the last major scientific breakthrough humanity made happened 200 years ago when electricity was discoverd/electric motor was built by Faraday. We've been reaping the benefits ever since, as the entire civilization today depends on electricity. If we didn't have it, the world wouldn't be much different from 18th century.

Invention of computers and dicovery of the power of atoms were also important, but owed it to prior discovery of electricity, just like everything else. Since then, we have slowly improved technologically, but such improvement is finite without new major scientific discoveries. I think we would be lucky to be as advanced as 24th century Trek humans when our own 24th century rolls around.

In Star Trek, humans made a major scientific breakthrough by finding out about subspace and using it to bend normal space and break the lightspeed barrier. This changed them completely, and for the next 200 years they reap the benefits of this major breakthrough. By the time we see Kirk's era, we see a bunch of derivative technologies such asligthspeed communications and weapons.

They also seem to have discovered some way to seperate an object and send it somewhere else, and rematerialize it. This leads not only to transportation of humans, but easy creation of food for the masses, another derivative technology.

They can harness the power of M/AM reactions to release energies several orders of magnitute larger that what we have. This than has a whole string of benefits.

In 200 years they made several huge leaps, while we did 1 leap and couple of small steps. I don't think they've erred on the side of timidity, and to suggest that they are not technologically advanced is ridiculous. You don't have to be a clone with a robotic arm to be considered advanced. If you take the above Kardashev scale, Star Trek humans can be considered well beyond level 2, which is incredible considering that we are currently not even 1.

This thinking is fairly common and limited generally by human perception that is often short-sighted and hopelessly linear. The exponential curve of development has been increasing, and even before such theories garnered such wide attention, we knew the level of human knowledge had grown by leaps and bounds since WWII, even as much as equaling or surpassing the sum of human knowledge in all of history in a mere 50-60 years. Regardless of whether is acutally a "singularity" the pace is quickening even now. As a human being part of this remarkable expansion in human knowledge, I find it almost insulting that you could list events 200 years ago as something being remotely "the last great scientific breakthrough". Usually men through history (even learned ones) are easily mocked when making such grand and inaccurate proclamations.

We don't need matter/anti-matter power or even fusion power necessarily, the sun can actually provide all the power we need on Earth. We absorb only minute amounts now, we can eventually harness a much larger percentage, and even actively beam the power back down on Earth with collectors. Much of the technology exists now in some form.

RAMA
 
^Your argument regarding electricity also works for the steam engine, the printing press, and the wheel among many others. It also works for the transistor, penicillin, and winged aircraft.

There is no guarantee that every technology will be more advanced than the ones depicted in Star Trek, but some, most notably information tech, will most likely surpass it far sooner than the 23rd century.


I used to think so too, now I'm not so sure...we could be well BEYOND the majority of ST's science by the 24th century.
 
We don't need matter/anti-matter power or even fusion power necessarily, the sun can actually provide all the power we need on Earth. We absorb only minute amounts now, we can eventually harness a much larger percentage, and even actively beam the power back down on Earth with collectors. Much of the technology exists now in some form.

RAMA

But it could turn out to be a lot easier and cheaper to use m/a or fusion in the long run. Well, fusion at least.
 
I notice a lot of arrogance among people today when it comes to technology. Some think we'll be some sort of gods in a few hundred years.

There is no way technological development is such a sharp exponential curve, even though it is exponential. It is random and limited by scientific discoveries. Even if it was a very steep curve, we haven't made that many advancements lately to say that by 24th century, we'll be vastly more advanced than humans in Trek. Many people seem to think that iPods and flatscreen tv's and cell phones are giant leaps, but they are only derivative technologies.

IMO, the last major scientific breakthrough humanity made happened 200 years ago when electricity was discoverd/electric motor was built by Faraday. We've been reaping the benefits ever since, as the entire civilization today depends on electricity. If we didn't have it, the world wouldn't be much different from 18th century.

Invention of computers and dicovery of the power of atoms were also important, but owed it to prior discovery of electricity, just like everything else. Since then, we have slowly improved technologically, but such improvement is finite without new major scientific discoveries. I think we would be lucky to be as advanced as 24th century Trek humans when our own 24th century rolls around.

In Star Trek, humans made a major scientific breakthrough by finding out about subspace and using it to bend normal space and break the lightspeed barrier. This changed them completely, and for the next 200 years they reap the benefits of this major breakthrough. By the time we see Kirk's era, we see a bunch of derivative technologies such asligthspeed communications and weapons.

They also seem to have discovered some way to seperate an object and send it somewhere else, and rematerialize it. This leads not only to transportation of humans, but easy creation of food for the masses, another derivative technology.

They can harness the power of M/AM reactions to release energies several orders of magnitute larger that what we have. This than has a whole string of benefits.

In 200 years they made several huge leaps, while we did 1 leap and couple of small steps. I don't think they've erred on the side of timidity, and to suggest that they are not technologically advanced is ridiculous. You don't have to be a clone with a robotic arm to be considered advanced. If you take the above Kardashev scale, Star Trek humans can be considered well beyond level 2, which is incredible considering that we are currently not even 1.

This thinking is fairly common and limited generally by human perception that is often short-sighted and hopelessly linear. The exponential curve of development has been increasing, and even before such theories garnered such wide attention, we knew the level of human knowledge had grown by leaps and bounds since WWII, even as much as equaling or surpassing the sum of human knowledge in all of history in a mere 50-60 years. Regardless of whether is acutally a "singularity" the pace is quickening even now. As a human being part of this remarkable expansion in human knowledge, I find it almost insulting that you could list events 200 years ago as something being remotely "the last great scientific breakthrough". Usually men through history (even learned ones) are easily mocked when making such grand and inaccurate proclamations.


RAMA

First, I didn't deny that our learning is exponential.

Second, if you're insulted, that's your problem with your ego. I gave good reasoning for what I wrote, and haven't changed my mind. Winged aircraft for example, as sugested by Sojourner, don't compare to discovery of electricity, nor anything else discovered recently.

In star trek, they make several massive strides forward, the likes of which we won't be able to do in the next 300 years. We'll probably master Earth, and parts of the solar system, but that's about it.
 
Personal opinion on what is significant and what is not doesn't strike me as a sound basis for arguing about the possibility of future technological strides. What should be pondered here is why so much learning has taken place so far. And the answer to that seems obvious enough: never in the history of the world (or the universe, as far as we know) have there been so many people studying these things.

Not only is world population growing in synch with the number of new technologies, but the percentage of people capable of innovation (essentially, sufficiently well fed to have the spare time) is increasing; the resources available for these people are increasing; and, the most recently, the ability of these people to communicate with each other is increasing.

In order to see a downturn in innovation, we'd need an outrageously massive downturn in one of the above, or merely improbable downturns in three or more of them simultaneously....

Trek has achieved a lot, but most of it is unreal and thus rather uninteresting. We won't be inventing singing swords and jabberwockies in the near or far future, or warp drives, or transporters. But there's nothing about the process of innovation that would stop us from figuring out how to build a sentient handheld weapon, engineer a lifeform, go interstellar, or master teleportation. To predict otherwise is simply silly.

Timo Saloniemi
 
Personal opinion on what is significant and what is not doesn't strike me as a sound basis for arguing about the possibility of future technological strides. What should be pondered here is why so much learning has taken place so far. And the answer to that seems obvious enough: never in the history of the world (or the universe, as far as we know) have there been so many people studying these things.

Not only is world population growing in synch with the number of new technologies, but the percentage of people capable of innovation (essentially, sufficiently well fed to have the spare time) is increasing; the resources available for these people are increasing; and, the most recently, the ability of these people to communicate with each other is increasing.

In order to see a downturn in innovation, we'd need an outrageously massive downturn in one of the above, or merely improbable downturns in three or more of them simultaneously....

Trek has achieved a lot, but most of it is unreal and thus rather uninteresting. We won't be inventing singing swords and jabberwockies in the near or far future, or warp drives, or transporters. But there's nothing about the process of innovation that would stop us from figuring out how to build a sentient handheld weapon, engineer a lifeform, go interstellar, or master teleportation. To predict otherwise is simply silly.

Timo Saloniemi

Yes! The artistic, engineering and tech strides of modern times is actually underestimated...in past centuries, there were often only a handful of humans involved with expanding the frontiers of human creativity and knowledge, sometimes their rarity (Like Da Vinci, Galileo, etc) makes their artistry and science even more noteworthy and valuable, but as you suggest, today there are not only more people involved with these endeavors, the ratio is much higher. Another reason: not just sheer numbers, but when one culture builds upon the developments of another, there is where the increased pace(exponential) ignites.

I feel if we have mathematical models to go on, it is a much better way to predict than other methods, and hardly just personal opinion. Here is where futurism, tech, culture and SF intersect.

I got into a discussion online with a European girl, and she insisted the greatest masters of art, and the peak of society was far in the past. I think this is a common conception of many in the "old world" or countries where the culture believes it's insulting to think we may be better than past generations (whew, that's actually a lot of the planet...sadly). I can't fathom this appeal for the past.

Trek has almost always been years or decades behind SF literature, but one of it's chief accomplishments other than entertainment value lies in popularizing concepts...for example, no one really knew about nanotech except for a small intellectual minority in 1990...despite the fact that STNG played it somewhat safe, and only told about half the story of the abilities of the technology (kudos for them showing exponential growth in nanite evolution and intelligence) we got an interesting story built around it. In the 1960s, it was compact communications, FTL drive, and possibly the most impactful...a city-like starship!
 
I can't fathom this appeal for the past.
In certain cultures, it would be an unavoidable side effect of respect for ancestors, I guess... To improve upon them would be insulting. (Thanks for the blog link, Edit XYZ! http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2011/1...e-fiction.html )

However, in modern Europe, I'd blame it simply on a very natural sort of bias. "Only old art can be good" is a true statement, statistically, because old art only survives if it is good, while new art exists even when it is horribly bad. It's a case of failing to see the process.

I'm sure the same would remain true of the 23rd and 24th centuries, ours and Treks alike. Although perhaps the Trek folks have learned to despise their ancestors - thanks to WWIII, every Earthling may feel he or she is the descendant of people worse than the Nazis, and is justly ashamed of any past achievements.

Kirk's idolatry of, say, Lincoln and Khan would appear to speak against that, though.

Timo Saloniemi
 
Frankly, our greatest technological achievement was the invention of the twisty-off beer bottle cap. After that, we may as well stop trying, we'll never again invent anything so world-changing.
 
Well, the writers of trek purposely did not take a lot of the technologies presented on the show to their logical possibilities in order to keep the stories relateable.

The show would have flopped if it was about Q - like humans with unimaginable power every week.

In-universe you can try to explain the relatively low tech of the 23rd century in relation to the current real world rate of advancement as a result of the global war later this century.
Or you could take it as a given that not everything that CAN be invented WILL be, and not everything that IS invented gains widespread use. I've suspected for a long time that at a certain level of technological advancement, adoption of new technology becomes simple vanity since any two similar devices will have pretty much identical capabilities and it's really just a matter of which one is prettier.

RAMA said:
This thinking is fairly common and limited generally by human perception that is often short-sighted and hopelessly linear. The exponential curve of development has been increasing, and even before such theories garnered such wide attention, we knew the level of human knowledge had grown by leaps and bounds since WWII, even as much as equaling or surpassing the sum of human knowledge in all of history in a mere 50-60 years.
Step back a minute and take the human race as a whole and you might be surprised to find this is not a GENERAL trend, but a concentrated one specific to a handful of highly developed/industrialized nations. The third world has adopted technology in different stages and in different rates, but generally only the cheapest/most convenient offshoots from their more developed neighbors. The curve has only been "exponential" in the United States, Europe and Japan; elsewhere it's been relatively linear, even in nations like China that have embraced industrialization wholeheartedly.

The level of human knowledge has indeed grown by huge leaps, but the number of humans who POSSESS that knowledge has remained fairly constant. Moreover, the number of humans aware of--or capable of understanding--the most advanced new concepts grows smaller and smaller, so much so that even PRACTICAL applications of that knowledge (medical care, for instance) require such a high degree of specialization that no one person is capable of exercising full proficiency in more than two (usually, more than ONE) field. This is not so much the exponential expansion of human knowledge, but the CONSOLIDATION of it into a smaller and smaller number of hyper-experts who have the tools to reach even greater heights.

In the context of an interstellar civilization spanning several solar systems, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that a vast knowledge incongruity may exist between a class of technocrats and a superset of what you might call "everyone else." This is why people like Flint or Daystrom or Noonien Soong are able to create sentient computers, reality-bending gizmos and mind-altering whatsits in their back yards while the rest of humanity gets along with computers that speak in monotone and conventional warp drives. The knowledge itself becomes a form of wealth that builds on itself, and--like money--cannot be easily duplicated, and Starfleet, like everyone else, may be operating on a fairly limited "knowledge budget" that forces them to make due, not with the cutting edge of technology, but the cutting edge of what can be feasibly mass produced into a hundred starships and a thousand tricorders.

I would go so far as to venture that Starfleet--and the majority of the human race--lags significantly BEHIND the cutting edge for the 23rd century, and that singularity-bending creatures like Telane, Ardra, Data, Landru etc are a necessarily rare "upper 1%" of the universe's knowledge/technology elite while the majority of humanity is in a "middle class" crowd that just manages to squeak buy with relatively advanced--but universally affordable--medium technology.
 
Yes! The artistic, engineering and tech strides of modern times is actually underestimated...in past centuries, there were often only a handful of humans involved with expanding the frontiers of human creativity and knowledge, sometimes their rarity (Like Da Vinci, Galileo, etc) makes their artistry and science even more noteworthy and valuable, but as you suggest, today there are not only more people involved with these endeavors, the ratio is much higher. Another reason: not just sheer numbers, but when one culture builds upon the developments of another, there is where the increased pace(exponential) ignites.
This is, again, only true in industrialized/developed nations and is itself a feature of a highly developed economy. It is hardly the ultimate expression of economic activity, nor is it the final form of social/technical evolution.

A post-singularity society could very well develop into one where even small technological innovations require massive intellectual investments resulting in tremendous breakthroughs so that technology doesn't change appreciably (except cosmetically) for centuries at a time. It's not hard to imagine circumstances that would cause this to be the case; the Utility Age, for example, would involve a technology base where a clump of nanomachines the size of your fist could become anything and do anything you ask them to do virtually without limit; small improvements might make them a little faster or a little more efficient, but there wouldn't be a significant technological "breakthrough" for several centuries until some super-genius in hyper nanotech invents a nanorobot swarm that is capable of becoming incorporeal and traveling faster than light.

I feel if we have mathematical models to go on...
We don't, because mathematics is deterministic and human nature--as well as human development--is not. This is the problem with economics, you see. Things like money, expenses and production can be quantified, while things like "innovation" and "uncertainty" can't. There's no mathematical model that can predict what a given society will do when one of its members makes a technological breakthrough or how that breakthrough will affect that society; it's a LOT more complicated than that.

I got into a discussion online with a European girl, and she insisted the greatest masters of art, and the peak of society was far in the past. I think this is a common conception of many in the "old world" or countries where the culture believes it's insulting to think we may be better than past generations (whew, that's actually a lot of the planet...sadly). I can't fathom this appeal for the past.
Yes you can. You see it all the time whenever somebody here makes an appeal to TOS or bellows out some "Canon violation!" whargarble. There are many here who believe that TOS got it right and everything that came after it was flawed or defective, and this for a prime time television show that was originally produced PURELY as a commercial product.

But you cannot fathom how somebody would feel the same way about Vincent Van Gogh or Johann Strauss?

Trek has almost always been years or decades behind SF literature, but one of it's chief accomplishments other than entertainment value lies in popularizing concepts...for example, no one really knew about nanotech except for a small intellectual minority in 1990...despite the fact that STNG played it somewhat safe, and only told about half the story of the abilities of the technology (kudos for them showing exponential growth in nanite evolution and intelligence) we got an interesting story built around it. In the 1960s, it was compact communications, FTL drive, and possibly the most impactful...a city-like starship!
Case in point with the nanites: the story didn't bother to carry nanotechnology to its "logical conclusion," and this to you is "behind the times." The thing is, Starfleet nanites were depicted as standard medical equipment that Wesley modified and slightly screwed up; prior to modification, they were probably the Federation's equivalent of a liquid bandage, and probably the sort of thing you'd be able to buy for a dozen credits at the corner store on Deep Space Nine. The kind of nanotechnology that would be able to eat an asteroid and crap out a starship, or float around in the air as a utility fog, or float around in your bloodstream making you effectively immortal, would almost certainly exist SOMEWHERE in the 23rd century, but they wouldn't be on a ship like Enterprise, and wouldn't be the kind of thing any yahoo from San Francisco would have access to. They would be in the possession of the Flints and Ardras and Trelanes of the universe, or something Kivas Fajo lifted from the maintenance deck of the Fesarius, or something the Borg assimilated and produced a less sophisticated copy of a long time ago.

Trek didn't exactly adhere to the concept, but one thing they accidentally got right was the fact that the highest technology is as advanced as it is rare, and that which is on the cutting edge of technological development is almost NEVER mass produced.
 
Yes! The artistic, engineering and tech strides of modern times is actually underestimated...in past centuries, there were often only a handful of humans involved with expanding the frontiers of human creativity and knowledge, sometimes their rarity (Like Da Vinci, Galileo, etc) makes their artistry and science even more noteworthy and valuable, but as you suggest, today there are not only more people involved with these endeavors, the ratio is much higher. Another reason: not just sheer numbers, but when one culture builds upon the developments of another, there is where the increased pace(exponential) ignites.
This is, again, only true in industrialized/developed nations and is itself a feature of a highly developed economy. It is hardly the ultimate expression of economic activity, nor is it the final form of social/technical evolution.

A post-singularity society could very well develop into one where even small technological innovations require massive intellectual investments resulting in tremendous breakthroughs so that technology doesn't change appreciably (except cosmetically) for centuries at a time. It's not hard to imagine circumstances that would cause this to be the case; the Utility Age, for example, would involve a technology base where a clump of nanomachines the size of your fist could become anything and do anything you ask them to do virtually without limit; small improvements might make them a little faster or a little more efficient, but there wouldn't be a significant technological "breakthrough" for several centuries until some super-genius in hyper nanotech invents a nanorobot swarm that is capable of becoming incorporeal and traveling faster than light.

I feel if we have mathematical models to go on...
We don't, because mathematics is deterministic and human nature--as well as human development--is not. This is the problem with economics, you see. Things like money, expenses and production can be quantified, while things like "innovation" and "uncertainty" can't. There's no mathematical model that can predict what a given society will do when one of its members makes a technological breakthrough or how that breakthrough will affect that society; it's a LOT more complicated than that.

I got into a discussion online with a European girl, and she insisted the greatest masters of art, and the peak of society was far in the past. I think this is a common conception of many in the "old world" or countries where the culture believes it's insulting to think we may be better than past generations (whew, that's actually a lot of the planet...sadly). I can't fathom this appeal for the past.
Yes you can. You see it all the time whenever somebody here makes an appeal to TOS or bellows out some "Canon violation!" whargarble. There are many here who believe that TOS got it right and everything that came after it was flawed or defective, and this for a prime time television show that was originally produced PURELY as a commercial product.

But you cannot fathom how somebody would feel the same way about Vincent Van Gogh or Johann Strauss?

Trek has almost always been years or decades behind SF literature, but one of it's chief accomplishments other than entertainment value lies in popularizing concepts...for example, no one really knew about nanotech except for a small intellectual minority in 1990...despite the fact that STNG played it somewhat safe, and only told about half the story of the abilities of the technology (kudos for them showing exponential growth in nanite evolution and intelligence) we got an interesting story built around it. In the 1960s, it was compact communications, FTL drive, and possibly the most impactful...a city-like starship!
Case in point with the nanites: the story didn't bother to carry nanotechnology to its "logical conclusion," and this to you is "behind the times." The thing is, Starfleet nanites were depicted as standard medical equipment that Wesley modified and slightly screwed up; prior to modification, they were probably the Federation's equivalent of a liquid bandage, and probably the sort of thing you'd be able to buy for a dozen credits at the corner store on Deep Space Nine. The kind of nanotechnology that would be able to eat an asteroid and crap out a starship, or float around in the air as a utility fog, or float around in your bloodstream making you effectively immortal, would almost certainly exist SOMEWHERE in the 23rd century, but they wouldn't be on a ship like Enterprise, and wouldn't be the kind of thing any yahoo from San Francisco would have access to. They would be in the possession of the Flints and Ardras and Trelanes of the universe, or something Kivas Fajo lifted from the maintenance deck of the Fesarius, or something the Borg assimilated and produced a less sophisticated copy of a long time ago.

Trek didn't exactly adhere to the concept, but one thing they accidentally got right was the fact that the highest technology is as advanced as it is rare, and that which is on the cutting edge of technological development is almost NEVER mass produced.

It's true the they only touched on the fringes of the possibilities of nanites as Starfleet technology, but by showing the capabilities when freed of restraint(no doubt along with strict genetics laws, the UFP has an Asimovian law in regards to nanites-I suspect before Earth reached a singularity, the must have pre-empted it with regulations up the ying yang), the technology exploded, and not only wanted to survive, it became self-aware...now unlike the the knee jerk reaction to lash back (portrayed by a self-motivated scientist) STNG actually made the leap and let the new community live as a real life form.

While it's true there are haves and have nots with tech, there is also a sign that the current technological leaps are more all pervasive than previous technological explosions within history. "Third world" countries, despite still comparatively poor, have access to technologies they couldn't have dreamed of in years past, clean water tech is available that is inexpensive and starting to spread (lack of clean water is the number one health prob in these countries), a kid with a cellphone has access to information world leaders didn't have a few decades ago, the expansion of GDP is actually statistically increasing faster in these third world countries than in developed ones!!! This is a fact. There is a deflation in cost that comes with exponential growth that will make almost anything available to anyone, the have nots will be radically reduced, unless they choose not to be part of development.

Yes, I DO see people on this board refusing to think of of the box and pining for the past, like I said, I don't really get it...if anything human frailty seems to need to ground itself in something concrete from memory.
 
It's true the they only touched on the fringes of the possibilities of nanites as Starfleet technology, but by showing the capabilities when freed of restraint(no doubt along with strict genetics laws, the UFP has an Asimovian law in regards to nanites-I suspect before Earth reached a singularity, the must have pre-empted it with regulations up the ying yang), the technology exploded, and not only wanted to survive, it became self-aware...now unlike the the knee jerk reaction to lash back (portrayed by a self-motivated scientist) STNG actually made the leap and let the new community live as a real life form.
What more could you really ask for? It appears that particular nanite strain was a fluke that resulted from Wesley's tampering; it ended up pretty well only because the crew of the Enterprise is just that resourceful. There are a thousand ways it could have ended with the Enterprise AND the nanites being utterly destroyed, and the situation as it unfolded was hardly what you would call "ideal laboratory conditions."

If there is one constant in the Trek universe, it's that it is truly better to be lucky than smart.

While it's true there are haves and have nots with tech, there is also a sign that the current technological leaps are more all pervasive than previous technological explosions within history. "Third world" countries, despite still comparatively poor, have access to technologies they couldn't have dreamed of in years past, clean water tech is available that is inexpensive and starting to spread (lack of clean water is the number one health prob in these countries), a kid with a cellphone has access to information world leaders didn't have a few decades ago, the expansion of GDP is actually statistically increasing faster in these third world countries than in developed ones!!!
And yet you don't see Large Hadron Colliders or space shuttles in the Barrios, despite the sudden prevalence of cell phones and color TVs. If I might walk you back in history a bit, you might recall that when the Plains Indians abandoned their agrarian lifestyle for a more nomadic existence, they very quickly adopted horses, firearms, leather saddles and steal hatchets from their European neighbors in the process. This seems like a pretty huge technological leap for them... until you realize that cannons, repeating rifles, ships, explosives, and the training to use all of them effectively, were NOT shared with the plains Indians and were later used to subjugate them despite their adoption of newer technologies.

Fast forward to the 21st century where the Libyan rebels are seen buying airborne reconnaissance drones on eBay to help coordinate their battle strategies. This seems like a pretty cool little trick, until you realize that those low-cost recon drones are the smaller cousins of spy satellites, Predator UCAVs and the up-and-coming generation of stealth drones capable of carrying full-sized bomb loads.

You need to avoid the temptation to conflate the more mundane trinkets of high technology with the actual products of a technological culture. Just because everyone in Tehran has a Twitter account doesn't mean the Iranian space program is getting ready to colonize the moon.

There is a deflation in cost that comes with exponential growth that will make almost anything available to anyone...
Assuming that nothing new is ever developed, sure. But there will ALWAYS be haves and have-nots, both in technology and the economy; it's not because the higher end products never become affordable to poor consumers (eventually they do), it's because the NEXT generation of high-end products is always out of reach for a huge segment of humanity. It actually tends to go quite the other way, in fact, with accessibility to the upper tier growing smaller and smaller over time, especially as the cost of ownership--both in money and knowledge--increases for those upper tier products.

Most humans, for example, now possess a minimum of technological knowledge and infrastructure needed to own a car. Very few of us, however, possess the knowledge and infrastructure to own a light aircraft, and even fewer of us to own a private jet. By the time light aircraft become more commonplace among the have-nots, you will start to see privately owned spacecraft on the market.

the have nots will be radically reduced, unless they choose not to be part of development.
They don't usually HAVE a choice. They don't typically live in the kinds of places where those kinds of decisions are made.

To put this in perspective: it is no longer considered a luxury for someone to possess, for example, a cellular phone. It has become so affordable and so mundane that many people have stopped using landlines for it and cell phones are in use in some impoverished regions where regular phones aren't even reliable. Laptop computers are slowly beginning to follow this trend as their cost goes down and their performance increases. And yet, like the plains Indians of the 19th century, they become end-consumers of yesteryear's high tech in whatever quantity they can afford, but are neither able or inclined to invent NEW technologies and profit directly from them. They are therefore vastly outmatched in any situation where they come into contact with the people who ACTUALLY INVENTED that technology and have already kept for themselves more effective versions of it.

Think of those Libyan rebels for a moment and the reconnaissance drones they bought on the internet. Picture them trying to use those devices in direct confrontation with, say, the U.S. Marine Corps. I'll see your cut-rate recon drone and raise you a Predator UCAV with a pair of GPS-guided bombs.
 
What more could you really ask for? It appears that particular nanite strain was a fluke that resulted from Wesley's tampering; it ended up pretty well only because the crew of the Enterprise is just that resourceful. There are a thousand ways it could have ended with the Enterprise AND the nanites being utterly destroyed, and the situation as it unfolded was hardly what you would call "ideal laboratory conditions."

If there is one constant in the Trek universe, it's that it is truly better to be lucky than smart..

Hmm, no I think it was the reverse...it wasn't an accident, it was the deliberate engineering of said nanites (something probably already protected against at least on an administrative level) by (a rather smart)Wesley. The accident was that he simply let them go. Once they got out, they also deliberately engineered themselves. Now here is where STNG is great...they did NOT tell the story where the ship is destroyed, no Kirk existed to talk them into destroying themselves...they came up with a reasoned solution. Almost any mundane show you could name would have had a disaster occur. I think this is why I like the episode so much.

And yet you don't see Large Hadron Colliders or space shuttles in the Barrios, despite the sudden prevalence of cell phones and color TVs. If I might walk you back in history a bit, you might recall that when the Plains Indians abandoned their agrarian lifestyle for a more nomadic existence, they very quickly adopted horses, firearms, leather saddles and steal hatchets from their European neighbors in the process. This seems like a pretty huge technological leap for them... until you realize that cannons, repeating rifles, ships, explosives, and the training to use all of them effectively, were NOT shared with the plains Indians and were later used to subjugate them despite their adoption of newer technologies.
Third world countries may be doubling our GDP rate, but they are still well behind the curve...even so some countries that are not as technologically highly thought of are outpacing the G8 in areas like adoption of nanotech, and so on. The US will continue to be an innovator, but the long lead it has enjoyed from massive emigration in the past, and the relative unscathed condition post-WWII is disappearing...I don't see this as a come-down, it seems only natural to me.

You need to avoid the temptation to conflate the more mundane trinkets of high technology with the actual products of a technological culture. Just because everyone in Tehran has a Twitter account doesn't mean the Iranian space program is getting ready to colonize the moon.
No, but the fact they can adopt and use it effectively, combined with the possibility that their new "liberation" may help free them of cultural and religious constraints that made it better to worship past cultures and backwards ideas, may allow them to increase their adoption of technology. The deflation of tech in coming decades should also be a factor..

There is a deflation in cost that comes with exponential growth that will make almost anything available to anyone...

Assuming that nothing new is ever developed, sure. But there will ALWAYS be haves and have-nots, both in technology and the economy; it's not because the higher end products never become affordable to poor consumers (eventually they do), it's because the NEXT generation of high-end products is always out of reach for a huge segment of humanity. It actually tends to go quite the other way, in fact, with accessibility to the upper tier growing smaller and smaller over time, especially as the cost of ownership--both in money and knowledge--increases for those upper tier products.
I think the whole idea is that the next waves of technological gain influencing the human experience will be so dramatically increased in pace that it will equalize it for everyone, if not equalize then at least make the spikes in adoption rates of tech through cost and availability to vastly different cultures more comparable. I don't think past models will help us here as much.

the have nots will be radically reduced, unless they choose not to be part of development. They don't usually HAVE a choice. They don't typically live in the kinds of places where those kinds of decisions are made.

To put this in perspective: it is no longer considered a luxury for someone to possess, for example, a cellular phone. It has become so affordable and so mundane that many people have stopped using landlines for it and cell phones are in use in some impoverished regions where regular phones aren't even reliable. Laptop computers are slowly beginning to follow this trend as their cost goes down and their performance increases. And yet, like the plains Indians of the 19th century, they become end-consumers of yesteryear's high tech in whatever quantity they can afford, but are neither able or inclined to invent NEW technologies and profit directly from them. They are therefore vastly outmatched in any situation where they come into contact with the people who ACTUALLY INVENTED that technology and have already kept for themselves more effective versions of it.

Think of those Libyan rebels for a moment and the reconnaissance drones they bought on the internet. Picture them trying to use those devices in direct confrontation with, say, the U.S. Marine Corps. I'll see your cut-rate recon drone and raise you a Predator UCAV with a pair of GPS-guided bombs.
They don't have to be over-matched because we don't have to consider it from a military perspective in most cases...I don't really care if they have last decade's drones...think of countries that came from almost nothing like Japan, Korea or Singapore...or even smaller European nations...They will have a chance to adapt like never before.
 
I notice a lot of arrogance among people today when it comes to technology. Some think we'll be some sort of gods in a few hundred years.

There is no way technological development is such a sharp exponential curve, even though it is exponential. It is random and limited by scientific discoveries. Even if it was a very steep curve, we haven't made that many advancements lately to say that by 24th century, we'll be vastly more advanced than humans in Trek. Many people seem to think that iPods and flatscreen tv's and cell phones are giant leaps, but they are only derivative technologies.

IMO, the last major scientific breakthrough humanity made happened 200 years ago when electricity was discoverd/electric motor was built by Faraday. We've been reaping the benefits ever since, as the entire civilization today depends on electricity. If we didn't have it, the world wouldn't be much different from 18th century.

Invention of computers and dicovery of the power of atoms were also important, but owed it to prior discovery of electricity, just like everything else. Since then, we have slowly improved technologically, but such improvement is finite without new major scientific discoveries. I think we would be lucky to be as advanced as 24th century Trek humans when our own 24th century rolls around.

In Star Trek, humans made a major scientific breakthrough by finding out about subspace and using it to bend normal space and break the lightspeed barrier. This changed them completely, and for the next 200 years they reap the benefits of this major breakthrough. By the time we see Kirk's era, we see a bunch of derivative technologies such asligthspeed communications and weapons.

They also seem to have discovered some way to seperate an object and send it somewhere else, and rematerialize it. This leads not only to transportation of humans, but easy creation of food for the masses, another derivative technology.

They can harness the power of M/AM reactions to release energies several orders of magnitute larger that what we have. This than has a whole string of benefits.

In 200 years they made several huge leaps, while we did 1 leap and couple of small steps. I don't think they've erred on the side of timidity, and to suggest that they are not technologically advanced is ridiculous. You don't have to be a clone with a robotic arm to be considered advanced. If you take the above Kardashev scale, Star Trek humans can be considered well beyond level 2, which is incredible considering that we are currently not even 1.

This thinking is fairly common and limited generally by human perception that is often short-sighted and hopelessly linear. The exponential curve of development has been increasing, and even before such theories garnered such wide attention, we knew the level of human knowledge had grown by leaps and bounds since WWII, even as much as equaling or surpassing the sum of human knowledge in all of history in a mere 50-60 years. Regardless of whether is acutally a "singularity" the pace is quickening even now. As a human being part of this remarkable expansion in human knowledge, I find it almost insulting that you could list events 200 years ago as something being remotely "the last great scientific breakthrough". Usually men through history (even learned ones) are easily mocked when making such grand and inaccurate proclamations.


RAMA

First, I didn't deny that our learning is exponential.

Second, if you're insulted, that's your problem with your ego. I gave good reasoning for what I wrote, and haven't changed my mind. Winged aircraft for example, as sugested by Sojourner, don't compare to discovery of electricity, nor anything else discovered recently.

In star trek, they make several massive strides forward, the likes of which we won't be able to do in the next 300 years. We'll probably master Earth, and parts of the solar system, but that's about it.

:lol: Not my personal ego, but as part of this culture. I think it's a ridiculous idea.

Yes electricity was important, but building on the past is what the exponential idea is all about. Electricity was integral, and yet the sheer amount of technological discovery and innovation, with information tech leading the way is well beyond anything electricity alone in it's day could have accomplished, to suggest otherwise is nonsensical.

http://www.kurzweilai.net/race-against-the-machine#comments

Interesting new book...I have only recently seen the idea (which seems counter-intuitive to me) that the economy, is stagnating, the recession unending (always seems to be to the people while they are in it...btw did you notice that the "poor" recession dwellers of the early 21st century managed to spend a record $52 billion on Black Friday?), and these questions are being asked:

Why has median income stopped rising in the US?
Why is the share of population that is working falling so rapidly?
Why are our economy and society are becoming more unequal?


The answer in the book seems to be that the 60s idea of machines taking over the lesser skilled jobs (or even skilled jobs, as in TOS)is happening now. While this is going to be the case...less skilled jobs becoming more scare, it has also almost always been the case that entire new categories of jobs and businesses are created from the same technological source that caused it...at least for the next 35 years or so. While we can always identify and feel sorry for people who lose their jobs, I think ultimately it will probably be a good thing. Re-training and innovation are some of the most important things this country can do if they want to mitigate the problem.
 
What more could you really ask for? It appears that particular nanite strain was a fluke that resulted from Wesley's tampering; it ended up pretty well only because the crew of the Enterprise is just that resourceful. There are a thousand ways it could have ended with the Enterprise AND the nanites being utterly destroyed, and the situation as it unfolded was hardly what you would call "ideal laboratory conditions."

If there is one constant in the Trek universe, it's that it is truly better to be lucky than smart..

Hmm, no I think it was the reverse...it wasn't an accident, it was the deliberate engineering of said nanites (something probably already protected against at least on an administrative level) by (a rather smart)Wesley. The accident was that he simply let them go.
The accident was them proceeding to feast on the Enterprise' internal circuitry and subsequently achieve sentience, neither of which was what Wesley actually designed them to do.

Under only slightly different circumstances he might have accidentally created a strain of flesh-eating nanites that would have slowly devoured the entire crew before figuring out how to manipulate the central nervous systems of the few remaining survivors (the Federation being a very big place, I'd be surprised if this wasn't the cause of at least one starship's disappearance).

Third world countries may be doubling our GDP rate, but they are still well behind the curve...even so some countries that are not as technologically highly thought of are outpacing the G8 in areas like adoption of nanotech, and so on.
If by "some countries" you mean "India" and to a lesser extent Malaysia and Indonesia, you're basically right. But this again dodges the question of whether or not the PEOPLE in those countries are the actual consumers of that technology or the beneficiaries of the knowledge used to create it. It's enough to know that the wealthiest human being on Earth is presently a Telecom tycoon in Mexico, but that doesn't make Mexico the world leader in telecommunications technology.

No, but the fact they can adopt and use it effectively, combined with the possibility that their new "liberation" may help free them of cultural and religious constraints that made it better to worship past cultures and backwards ideas...
No, it may free them of Moamar Ghadaffi, which is something pretty big in itself.

As for cultural and religious constrains.... WTF?:confused:

There is a deflation in cost that comes with exponential growth that will make almost anything available to anyone...
The deflation of costs also comes with the deflation in wages, which is a bad thing for anyone who actually WORKS for a living. In which case, the only people who possess the ability to generate wealth are those who can use the wealth they already have to position investments and ride the tide of exponential growth, while everybody else drowns. Therein is the difference between the third world and the developed nations: the only people making money off this exponential growth are the people who have invested financially in the process and can get a return on their investment later.

Imagine, for example, some new invention that allows for exponential growth in urban construction. Exponential, as you know, means that the first month a single construction worker can build one house; the next month he can build four houses, the next month he can build nine houses, etc etc. At the end of the year, this single worker has the ability to build 4,096 houses a month.

That construction worker is now fucked, because there's no way in hell he'll be able to sell that many houses in a month. At this point the demand for new houses is basically zero, so for all intents and purposes he no longer has a job (although he probably has a house, but no furniture, no food and no electricity).

The technology that eliminated his job is patented by the Tyrell Corporation, which goes on to make billions of dollars on its development and distribution. The houses he built before the industry imploded were all sold to Citibank, which still manages to sell them at about 200% above market price and turn a handsome profit. The people who live in those houses are very relieved that housing prices have plummeted, too, because the firing of every construction worker on the planet has drastically reduced retail sales on just about everything so half the stores and restaurants in the country just went out of business.

The moral of the story is, PRODUCERS--that is, just about anyone who lives or works in the Global South--don't benefit from overproduction. Only INVESTORS do, and the number of people capable of making a meaningful financial investment in the technology sector grow smaller every day.

I think the whole idea is that the next waves of technological gain influencing the human experience will be so dramatically increased in pace that it will equalize it for everyone, if not equalize then at least make the spikes in adoption rates of tech through cost and availability to vastly different cultures more comparable. I don't think past models will help us here as much.
Those technologies have ALWAYS been available across all cultures. The only difference is the rate of proliferation, which is entirely a factor of transportation. You seem to be holding to the myth that only a handful of cultures in the world have ever valued technology and that those cultures dominated all others because of it; this is MASSIVELY false. The only thing that's really changed is that transportation methods are faster and therefore market proliferation is also quicker; it took flintlock rifles two hundred years to make it into Japan, but it only took two years for Bluetooth cell phones to penetrate Saudi Arabia. It's not because anything changed in Arabian culture, it's because the internet is faster than horseback couriers and diesels are faster than sails.

And even still, the users of that technology and the originators of that technology continue to be highly segregated. Only rarely have new originators come into existence and this always comes as part of a massive social/political/economic investment. The third world is what it is now because its residents cannot make those kinds of investments themselves. The United States is beginning to have similar problems because it REFUSES to do so.

They don't have to be over-matched because we don't have to consider it from a military perspective in most cases...
The military perspective is the one that actually matters if and when their relative positions are reversed. Since political power is backed only be the implicit threat of force, the elimination of that threat removes that power, and the REVERSAL of that threat also reverses that power.

IOW, when Libya has better drones, fighters and warships than the United States, then Libya gets to tell the United States what to do and what not to do. So when Libya tells the United States "We want to build a military base in New York. And by the way, there are these guys from Tripoli who want to open an electronics chain in your country... be a doll and grant them a business license, okay?"

The trend you seem to have missed is that even in the 20th century, the people with the biggest guns still have the most money. Now fast forward to the 23rd century where technology has reached a point where even single individuals can control arsenals capable of laying waste to entire civilizations, suddenly you've got to ask yourself of Flint or Trelane or even Adra would have possessed the advanced technology they did if they didn't ALSO possess incomprehensible offensive capabilities. It's not enough just to be rich, but to have the ability and the will to eliminate--or at least neutralize--any potential competitors. And if there's one thing Starfleet has in abundance, it's competitors.

You assume that the exponential growth of technology will make competition obsolete by making technology available to everyone. But competition is a powerful motivation in and of itself, and there are a number of people in the world for whom the end of that competition would be detrimental to their lifestyles and it is a lot easier to prevent that from happening than it is to put themselves into a position to profit from it.

I don't really care if they have last decade's drones...think of countries that came from almost nothing like Japan, Korea or Singapore...or even smaller European nations...They will have a chance to adapt like never before.
Provided, of course, they can get the local industrial class to make a series of strategic investments in an indigenous industrial program. For the moment, the Carlos Helus and Bill Gateses of the world are primarily just running their own businesses and raking in the profits; until they begin to use their sizeable profits to help build up industries in their own communities, it will be adoption, NOT adaptation.
 
Last edited:
If you are not already a member then please register an account and join in the discussion!

Sign up / Register


Back
Top