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Possible Futures

1. i'm not American.

2. not everyone on the planet is American. Britain's been involved in 5 wars since 1997 ALONE. Sierra Leone, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya.

let's not forget the continuing unrest and strife across the Mid-East, the Second Chechen War's still ongoing, Somalia's still half-way to hell with no paddle.

and the climate is changing, freak weather events are getting more frequent.
 
1. i'm not American.

2. not everyone on the planet is American. Britain's been involved in 5 wars since 1997 ALONE. Sierra Leone, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya.

For British the drop in casualties is even more stark. You lost one soldier in Sierra Leone, less than fifity in Kosovo, 422 in Afghanistan, 179 in Iraq, and none in Libya unless you count an airman killed in a traffic accident in Italy, for a total of 650 in all 5 wars. You lost more men than that in one day in 1775 taking Breed's Hill in Boston Massachusetts.

Since the end of WW-II, Britain has lost less than 3,800 men in all wars combined, whereas in WW-I Britain lost 886,000 and in WW-II 383,000. So your average death rate in war has dropped from 200,000 dead a year in WW-I, to around 63,000 a year in WW-II, to 57 a year post WW-II, to 43 a year since 1997.

This is actually part of a global trend that appears at all levels and all scales. Violence is dropping.

Professor Steven Pinker has a nice lecture on it, originally titled "Everything You Know is Wrong."

[yt]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ramBFRt1Uzk[/yt]

and the climate is changing, freak weather events are getting more frequent.

Which contradicts the idea of global warming theory, which predicts less severe weather (though they generally hide that aspect because it reduces funding). :)
 
Mad Max - a bunch of over-acting psychopaths fighting over the last few scraps of oil.

...wait...future?
 
The second half of this century will be more violent than the first half of the last one.
Global warming and overpopulation are the obvious problems. The ironic twist is that the latter could be solved if the whole world industrialized as population growth is stagnant or low in the First World yet this planet cannot sustain 7 billion meateaters and smartphone owners.

We are forced to develop new ways of living together, ideally right now and realistically after the worst wars are over. No idea what precisely it will be but it is clear that human life on a planet that transcends the 2° mark and heats up to 5 degrees or even more will have to be far more disciplined than today.
 
We are forced to develop new ways of living together, ideally right now and realistically after the worst wars are over. No idea what precisely it will be but it is clear that human life on a planet that transcends the 2° mark and heats up to 5 degrees or even more will have to be far more disciplined than today.

Nah. People in warm regions lounge around drinking margaritas. It's people in cold regions that have to work like rabbid squirrels to survive the winter. People from New York and Chicago retire to Florida and Puerto Rico, where it's 12C to 15C warmer. 2C is nothing. If I moved from Kentucky to Tennessee I've have a 3 to 4C jump, yet based on what I've heard from the border regions, life in Tennessee is not a post-apocalyptic struggle for food and water.
 
We are forced to develop new ways of living together, ideally right now and realistically after the worst wars are over. No idea what precisely it will be but it is clear that human life on a planet that transcends the 2° mark and heats up to 5 degrees or even more will have to be far more disciplined than today.

Nah. People in warm regions lounge around drinking margaritas. It's people in cold regions that have to work like rabbid squirrels to survive the winter. People from New York and Chicago retire to Florida and Puerto Rico, where it's 12C to 15C warmer. 2C is nothing. If I moved from Kentucky to Tennessee I've have a 3 to 4C jump, yet based on what I've heard from the border regions, life in Tennessee is not a post-apocalyptic struggle for food and water.

Global average increases by 2 to 5 degress, gturner, global average...
 
Which means that on average, the temperature goes up 2 to 5 degrees (assuming strong positive feedbacks, which are contradicted by all the actual measurements of the feedbacks).

Certainly some areas will benefit more than others, as the warming won't be evenly spread, but of course plants everywhere will benefit from an increase in CO2 up to 800 or 1000 ppm, along with an increased growing season in temperate latitudes. A 1 or 2C decrease, on the other hand, would certainly be bad. The little ice age killed millions of Europeans.

People ignore 20C changes in climate, which is why people in New York or Boston will move to LA, Phoenix, San Antonio, or Miami based on things like a 5% pay difference, local schools, tax rates, and the local bar scene.
 
However, while these heat related changes are going on, the Sahara gets bigger, poor people in areas bordering that desert have less and less food, the storms will get worse (until everything settles) and more poor people will die..but it's OK, because I live in a temperate zone?

really?


GT sometimes you make me wonder..
 
^ The Sahara keeps on shrinking due to the changes in climate, and the people bordering it keep moving inwards to take advantage of the increased grazing. Almost everyone in Africa lives along a narrow strip of coast or in a huge band around the equator, not in more northerly or southerly latitudes. Climate change will expand the wet tropical regions, and CO2 increases will massively increase their food production.

What kind of sick person would want to stop those changes, much less stop them by halting their use of energy sources that would allow them to achieve a better standard of living, running pumps for irrigation, propane for cooking (instead of breathing cooking smoke for their entire lifetimes), and transporting crops longer distances to even out regional crop shortages as we do in the West?

We know colder temperatures are bad, often catastrophic, from a wealth of historical records. We also know that warmer temperatures have been a boon (my house is often filled with geologists who would like to get back to some the much higher temperatures that occured earlier during this interglacial). To claim that slightly higher temperatures are catastrohpic, given that lower ones are definitely catastrophic, means that we happened to be living in the most ideal climate physically attainable on this planet, and we happened to have attained it, by pure coincidence, while the current crop of climatologists was forming their childhood memories. What are the odds of that? And what's even more startling is the belief that the climate was optimal everywhere, from the actic tundra to the rain forests to the Asian steppes to the African desert. Each temperature was perfect, perfect everywhere, no matter what that local temperture was!

As beliefs go, it's dumber than Santa Claus kidnapping the Tooth Fairy to a castle built by Leprechans.
 
^ The Sahara keeps on shrinking due to the changes in climate, and the people bordering it keep moving inwards to take advantage of the increased grazing.
Bullshit. The Sahara has been expanding at an alarming rate for decades. The Sahara is, in fact, currently expanding southward at a rate of about 48 kilometers per year. Here's a remedial level wiki article on Desertification that you should read.
 
^ The Sahara keeps on shrinking due to the changes in climate, and the people bordering it keep moving inwards to take advantage of the increased grazing.
Bullshit. The Sahara has been expanding at an alarming rate for decades. The Sahara is, in fact, currently expanding southward at a rate of about 48 kilometers per year. Here's a remedial level wiki article on Desertification that you should read.

You do realize that "expanding for decades" southward at 48-km per year puts the Sahara desert somewhere far down in the Atlantic ocean, don't you?

Anyway,

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2811-africas-deserts-are-in-spectacular-retreat.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8150415.stm (shrinking)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2005/sep/16/highereducation.climatechange
(GCM's predict shrinking)

A problem in some part of the Sahara is now flooding.
 
We are forced to develop new ways of living together, ideally right now and realistically after the worst wars are over. No idea what precisely it will be but it is clear that human life on a planet that transcends the 2° mark and heats up to 5 degrees or even more will have to be far more disciplined than today.

Nah. People in warm regions lounge around drinking margaritas. It's people in cold regions that have to work like rabbid squirrels to survive the winter.
If there is any relationship between GDP and average temperatures it is a negative one. Canada and Scandinavia are 1st world countries whereas everything around the equator are either third world or threshold countries.
Anyway, that's not the issue. There are plenty of academic papers, IPCC reports or economic stuff like the Stern report (the only thing I ever read about the issue) which reveal the high costs (there are of course asymmetrically distributed) of an increase of average temperatures around 2 degree. We will probably break the 2° barrier and beyond that it will become pretty nasty.


Climate change denials reminds me of Freud's story about the borrowed kettle.

A defence put forward by the man who was charged by one of his neighbours with having given him back a borrowed kettle in a damaged condition. The defendant asserted, first, that he had given it back undamaged; secondly that the kettle had a hole in it when he borrowed it; and, thirdly, that he never borrowed a kettle from his neighbour at all. So much the better if only a single one of these three lines of defence were to be accepted as valid the man would have to be acquitted.

In this case the three mutually exclusive arguments are something like this: "An increase of average temperatures doesn't actually do any damage to the ecosphere, there is something wrong with climatology, climate change does not really exist."
 
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gturner said:
Blither...

That New Scientist article dates back to 2002, and it's the only article they've publisheed to come to this conclusion. They have since published dozens of articles about the continued expansion of the Sahara and tropical deserts in general.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/learningzone/clips/desertification-expansion-of-the-sahara-desert/1498.html (expanding) Slightly newer article than the one you posted.

And a much more recent than your 2005 UK Guardian article about the continued Desertification currently occurring in Africa. http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-de...od-security-niger-desertification-in-pictures

gturner said:
A problem in some part of the Sahara is now flooding.
A problem fairly common to all areas with little or no vegetation, a/k/a deserts. Here's a real simple explanation, subtitled "Dangers of the Desert: Flash Floods and Sandstorms": http://adventure.howstuffworks.com/survival/wilderness/desert-survival7.htm
 
If the FOX news audience thinks that the Sahara is the Garden of Eden let's simply relocate them. Let's see how long they last in the Sahel zone.
 
We are notoriously bad at predicting our futures. Look at how Star Trek failed to predict the miniaturization of technology, the information revolution, computer advances, etc. In the 23rd century, Kirk's feeding cards into a computer with toggle switches and taking ten minutes to do data searches that we can do in five seconds on Google.

I see the major problems emerging as cloning and ethical issues, technology and the almost total loss of privacy, and widening inequality/disappearance of jobs due to tech innovation.
 
If there is any relationship between GDP and average temperatures it is a negative one. Canada and Scandinavia are 1st world countries whereas everything around the equator are either third world or threshold countries.

Unless you count places like Singapore, smack dab on the equator and rich as sin. In GDP per square mile, Canada lags behind Brazil and Nigeria.

Anyway, that's not the issue. There are plenty of academic papers, IPCC reports or economic stuff like the Stern report (the only thing I ever read about the issue) which reveal the high costs (there are of course asymmetrically distributed) of an increase of average temperatures around 2 degree. We will probably break the 2° barrier and beyond that it will become pretty nasty.

If higher temperatures cost more, how come all those poor people are living in the hot places instead of someplace cheap and cold like Sweden? How did we afford to make it through the medieval warm period when crops were flourishing?

Climate change denials reminds me of Freud's story about the borrowed kettle.

In this case the three mutually exclusive arguments are something like this: "An increase of average temperatures doesn't actually do any damage to the ecosphere, there is something wrong with climatology, climate change does not really exist."

They're not mutually exclusive. Just because warming would be great doesn't mean it's going to happen. Frankly, with a Dalton or Maunder minimum coming, we're screwed.

Belief in climate change is like a fairy tale. Even though CO2 lags temperatures, it causes them. Even though cloud feedbacks should be negative and are shown to be negative, they must be positive or climate funding will dry up. Even though switching to more expensive power sources will shift all the energy intensive manufacturing to China and India's less efficient facilities, along with trans-ocean shipping of building materials like steel, glass, bricks,and concrete, we must do it to save the environment. Even though we have terms like "arctic wasteland" and "tropical paradise" for a reason, warming is bad.

The real problem is that believers think the warming is caused by overindulgence (sin), and humans know the consequences of overindulgence are painful and bad. A whale, dolphin, or cat would look at global warming and think "free food!" Only monkeys would think something bad has to happen to keep the scales of karmic balance in line.

To a human, the idea that a fat guy sipping a slurpy while barreling down the highway is saving the planet and helping the poor is absurd. Our little brains, tuned as hunter gatherers, tell us the universe just can't work that way. Our religions all say you can't have something good come from sin, glutony, and self-indulgence. Objective science (which is not what we're getting) would disagree.

Or try this. Divide the world up into random sets of coordinates and temperatures. With a coin toss, increase or decrease the temperature at each point. Does the location become more or less suitable for life? Since the initial temperatures were essentially random, the result should be about 50-50. But we're still in an ice age with far below normal historical temperatures, and much of the planet remains locked in ice, so really there should be a bias toward warmer temperatures improving the conditions at the random locations.

But the answer climate scientists give us is always the same. Any increase is bad. Bad everywhere. Bad for everyone and at all times. In all cases bad. They're nuts, unable to get over their primitive primate instincts and religious conditioning.
 
If there is any relationship between GDP and average temperatures it is a negative one. Canada and Scandinavia are 1st world countries whereas everything around the equator are either third world or threshold countries.

Unless you count places like Singapore, smack dab on the equator and rich as sin. In GDP per square mile, Canada lags behind Brazil and Nigeria.

i currently work in Singapore and i would like to add a few things about the city state which i have been living in for the last 5 years. The ruling party which has ruled Singapore for the last 50 years, was originally a democratic socialist party. Then in the 1980s onwards, it went the "Third Way" as many left leaning parties did so after the apparent failure of socialist policies in the face of capitalist innovations. It became more centralist. Singapore is a pro business society. You can get a business license within hours. Individual and Corporate taxes rates are low but it retains a progressive tax rate. The Rich pay at a higher rate/percentage than the middle class and the working class pay no tax.

It has no minimum wage law but it has a law that forces companies to pay into their employees social security fund. Education, Health Care and Housing are very much government dominated sectors but it also allows for private players in these fields.

It has a very strong anti drug policy and a strong pro environment policy. It has a low unemployment rate (2.3%) and has a very low crime rate.

The government plays a very active role in their citizens lives. It has compulsory military service for it's male citizens. It mixes right wing and left wing policies and the country works very well as a result. It does have problems with rising inflation but that has to do with the very high employment rate which results in prices going up.

It also welcomes immigrants and it is also very strongly secular. The government recently took to court a Church,which was registered as a charity, because the church founder used church funds, donated by church goers, to finance his wife secular singing career. The government also recently arrested the heads of the anti drugs agency and the Singapore civil defense force for sexual misconduct related to the awarding of business contracts. The Government takes a 100 % no nonsense approach to corruption. And it's government ministries, departments and agencies are ran efficiently like private companies.

The government has welfare programs only for physically & mentally disabled and legally destitute people. It has workfare programs for the able bodied unemployed, teaching them skills and training them in various vocational courses so that they can be employable.
 
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