TNG was a popular enough show that a TV series era novel isn't necessarily outside the realm of possibility. And really, a Troi-Crusher centred novel makes more sense to me as something with the TNG banner on it rather than the Picard banner. Unless there are plans to include Crusher in the second season.
Likewise, that Picard novel is supposed to be a hardcover. I don't imagine Deanna Troi or Beverly Crusher are popular enough characters to warrant a hardcover release of a novel centred around them. Particularly the second hardcover Trek novel from S&S in recent times. I'd say if that Picard tale is not another Picard centred novel, it's a Seven of Nine centred one. Those are the only characters on that show I see warranting a hardcover novel.
I suspect any novel involving TNG characters will carry the Picard banner from this point on if for no other reason that to capitalize on the current running show (and provide publicity to the show as well). And perhaps it's possible Crusher and Troi have some sort of role in season 2 and this book is going to provide some background. I mean, at this point, we know very little other than apparently Troi and Crusher are major players.
I think the only way TNG title would be used at this point is if there was ever another novel in the relaunch universe, to distinguish it as a separate continuity (though based on the earlier comment I think the relaunch litverse is basically finished now, never to return). I really think the only TNG era novels that S&S will commission will be related in some way to Picard. I just don't see them commissioning a TNG-only novel that doesn't tie into Picard in some manner ( and I think it will have to be more than just a minor tie in).
From a purely money making perspective, and the fact that there apparently aren't going to be 12 novels a year--S&S will want to focus solely on tie-ins to the current shows.
The only exception, obviously, is the original series, because that is the source show. Books based on the prior spin-offs, and yes, including non-Picard TNG books, are DOA I think.
BTW, do we know for sure the next Picard novel
will be hardcover? Has that been confirmed?