Poll Is 99942 Apophis collision possible or not possible, or does not matter?

[think]

What is 99942 Apophis - a big mountain size asteroid headed to Earth (maybe?)

So we all know how bad we are at more then three object gravity interactions right? remember they said in physics that the gravitational pull between two objects with given masses is a Newton's equation for the solution?

Well the universe has more then 2 objects with mass and the forces are really a kind of harmoniousness in a dynamic of equation fields..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis

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This is a Youtube simulation using the universe sandbox program.
decent program... homepage is here
http://universesandbox.com/

Does this seem possible? why? why not... what do we do?

 

[Asbo Zaprudder]

Send for Bruce Willis.

 

[Santaman]

So it ranges from clear sky and humming birds to a kboom.. an earth shattering kboom...

 

[StarCruiser]

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[Asbo Zaprudder]

The JPL Sentry table indicates that there are a few asteroids with a higher probability of impact than 99942 Apophis:

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/

 

[StarCruiser]

There several on the list that have far more potential to hit... And many of those are large enough to hurt.

 

[think]

---oh my they could be the ones that make living really difficult ?

from the looks of the table nothing seems really probable to do damage -- IDK

 

[Qonundrum]

What is 99942 Apophis - a big mountain size asteroid headed to Earth (maybe?)

So we all know how bad we are at more then three object gravity interactions right? remember they said in physics that the gravitational pull between two objects with given masses is a Newton's equation for the solution?

Well the universe has more then 2 objects with mass and the forces are really a kind of harmoniousness in a dynamic of equation fields..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis

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This is a Youtube simulation using the universe sandbox program.
decent program... homepage is here
http://universesandbox.com/

Does this seem possible? why? why not... what do we do?

I'd like it better if they used "Yakkety Sax" for the background music...

Spoiler:

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...instead of that low-pitched creepy stuff.

So that's what we can do, make silly jokes and lament on the saddest part - that all 8 triplezillion satellites in geostationary orbit added just enough to get the asteroid comin' into town, like how the Monkees had...

Or hope there's enough nukes to launch at the thing to get it to shatter so if enough pieces get to orbit they'll burn up in the stratosphere the same way I overcooked my BBQ to a crisp, whoops...

https://www.popsci.com/now-you-can-see-all-space-junk-floating-around-earth-real-time
(article has pictures, which need to be seen to be believed... while reading, play the following song in the background:

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Amazing what they were on, in 1975...

 

[think]

https://www.foxnews.com/science/football-field-sized-asteroid-earth

It never ends at fox news. Okay. More end of Earth drama news. Go figure.

 

[XCV330]

https://www.foxnews.com/science/football-field-sized-asteroid-earth

It never ends at fox news. Okay. More end of Earth drama news. Go figure.

it would be a good idea to use one of these small low-risk near earth rocks to try the "Gravity tractor" concept out and see how workable it is to nudge the roid out of intercept.

 

[publiusr]

I have never liked the gravity tractor concept.

First, you need a looping Rosetta style trajectory--and expend a great deal of fuel needed to pull away from the object in just getting there.

The best fictional scenario I've seen was from a documentary from many years ago (Three Minutes to Impact, or newer).

This TV prograam showed a Delta II (stock footage of something besides a V-2) launching that was a lot like the Deep Impact mission where--instead of a copper impactor disk--a nuclear charge (probably made like an Orion pulse unit) was deployed by the main spacecraft bus that hung back a bit and observed, also hitting a moment later.

This allowed a fly-by type trajectory that got more mass/energy on target much quicker.

My guess is what hits us a good lick won't be seen coming much in advance.

A near miss could be good
https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4080/1

 

[XCV330]

My guess is what hits us a good lick won't be seen coming much in advance.

I agree. I wonder how effective that a shockwave pulse like an orion would have on an asteroid if it was the consistency of gravel already. Its better than nothing though, and far more direct. I think the gravity tractor would be useful if you DID find significant threats with years of warning. Hopefully in the next couple of decades those can all be identified for the most part and if they need to be shepherded to safer orbital inclinations, so be it. but if a comet or another extra-solar object comes out of plane, or retrograde with little warning, that's it, game over.

 

[publiusr]

At least we will get a good image of it coming in:
https://www.universetoday.com/14267...ently-in-space-for-a-comet-then-pounce-on-it/

This is about the most extensive write up on Tunguska that I found that:

the property values most likely to cause Tunguska-scale blast damage were around 70–80 m, 25–35 Mt, 2.4 g/cm3, 16 km/s, and 60°. For Tunguska-like airburst altitudes, the most likely properties shifted to smaller diameters, smaller energies, and slightly slower, steeper entries. Considering both burst altitude and ground damage criteria together, the most likely diameters remained around 75 m, but the likeliest energies shifted down to around 23 Mt. When considering the probability densities among combined multivariate combinations of properties, the distribution of cases most likely to meet the blast damage criteria also peaked around diameters of 75 m, with slightly higher densities around 2.6 g/cc, higher velocities around 19 km/s, and similar entry angles around 55–60. These cases had energies between 20–30 Mt and a wide range of absolute magnitudes from 22.4–26.4 H.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0019103518304676

Yet others held that the event was only from 3 to 5 megatons of TNT (13 to 21 PJ).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/T...more_optimistic_asteroid_predictions_999.html
https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2019/06/27/progress-on-asteroid-discovery-impact-mitigation/

 

[think]

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it shows this at 50 seconds in.. about

Jupiter was fine but the ecosystems were probably upset about the comet hitting the planet ...